October 12 Post

Hi Again,

Gary Marcus, an NYU professor emeritus and AI researcher, frequently criticizes OpenAI over financial sustainability, software reliability, and lack of safety controls. Financial Overvaluation: Marcus has compared OpenAI to WeWork, arguing that its massive valuation (such as past $157 billion estimates) is hard to justify given heavy operating losses. Reliability and Control: He contends that developers like OpenAI lack proper safeguards for large language models that are prone to hallucinations and cannot be reliably controlled. Calls for Temporary Reining In: In media appearances (including CNBC's Fast Money and Bloomberg's The Close), he has argued that high-risk AI development needs stricter oversight or a temporary shutdown of aggressive scaling until safety catches up.  Pattern of Misconduct: On his Substack, Marcus on AI, he has frequently highlighted reports regarding OpenAI's governance, internal communications, and competitive claims. Alternative Views: He has pointed to competitors like Anthropic as looking more structurally stable and models like DeepSeek as challenging OpenAI's core business model.

Another boring month on Wall Street. At times, boring is good. On 9/6/26, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 0.25%. Despite what the experts predicted; I was surprised that they did it so close to mid-terms. Per one school of thought, Fed Chair Warsh did it to show his independence from Trump- that he cannot be bullied by Trump. Do not expect rates to decline till 2028. The Fed decision was 12 to 0.

At the press conference, this is what the Fed Chair stated:

• Rates increased by 0.25%.

• Economy is expanding at a solid rate.

• Job gains kept up and unemployment rate remained unchanged.

• US economy is resilient – even with current geopolitical turmoil.

• Unemployment rate is close to full employment.

• Their focus is only on inflation.

• Commodity prices have risen.

• GDP to rise 2.3% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027.

• Most advanced economies are facing price pressures and most central banks are raising rates.

• 50% of people depend on paychecks and not on assets- who are at the bottom of the economic ladder (most vulnerable).

• “We will deliver price stability”.

• “Data points are noisy but trends matter”.

• “We do not have to drive up unemployment to bring down inflation”.

Jeffrey Gundlach is an American billionaire investor, businessman, and philanthropist who is the co-founder, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Investment Officer of DoubleLine Capital. As he does after a Fed decision, Jeffrey made the following comments on 9/6/26:

• Press conference was devoid of content.

• “If I was on the FOMC, I would raised rates by 0.5% and then stopped. Now we have to have more rate hikes.

• Per export/import prices, current inflation rate should be 7.8%.

• Costco doubles Kirkland Motor oil prices expecting even higher prices in the future.

• Now we have an inflation psychology which is dangerous.

• Inventory increases have risen GDP.

• Inflation has been above their 2% target for more than 5 years.

• World oil reserves are at the lowest level while usage is at its highest.

• AI bonds are under performing non-AI Bonds-same with stocks.

• Best investment- local currency based overseas bonds.

• If the 30 year US Treasury yield go up to 6.5%, buy it aggressively.

• Things will get rougher in the future.

Have a great month!

Fernando