Hi Again
Look at our score card (again); we had a gain of 23.88% over the past 3 months! If you had investments overseas, you would have done much better for 2 reasons. Most overseas markets did better than the US market. Secondly, the US dollar has been declining very sharply. In fact, we had the worst first half (ending 6/30/25) since 1973! Just before the November election, the dollar index was at $110 and on 6/30/25, it was down to $97. This is good for most big US companies that get 50%+ of their revenue from overseas.
Now the market is going through the “AI” craze- it is very much like the “dot com” craze of 1999+. What will be the next “market craze”? Just imagine if we got in to NVIDIA years ago before AI was well known. In 2000, if you bought 100 shares of NVIDIA for $10, today it would be worth $15,900! In my opinion, the next “craze” would be on Quantum computing. A few months ago I bought some quantum computing stocks and those tripled over a short period of time. When I put money in to a “moon shot”, I only put in a small amount of money. Then NVIDIA CEO stated that quantum computing is 30 years away and all those went in to a free fall. In my opinion, if experts state that it would take 30 years, it could happen in 10 years and if that is the case, these stocks will skyrocket in 2 to 5 years. Risk/Reward trade off. I bought my quantum computing stocks in January 2025, within 7 months, these are my gains: (1) D Wave Quantum (QBTS)- 339% (2) IONQ Inc (IONQ)- 81.62% (3) Rigetti Computing (RGTI)- 54.77% (4) Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM)- 16.58%. One of these days, I might add some of them to our newsletter portfolio.
I have been watching the performance of the brokerage house, Robinhood (HOOD). Robinhood may have taken the industry by storm when it launched in 2013, pioneering the no-fee trading model, but its first-mover advantage is long gone. In 2025, nearly all brokers offer commission-free trading, companies have to find innovative ways to stay competitive, and Robinhood has done a commendable job. Maintaining its no-fee, easy-to-use vibe, the company now offers much-improved trading platforms, an expanded number of available assets, including crypto and futures, more account types, solid banking features, and even a robo-advisor. Robinhood Legend, the company’s brand new web platform, is built from the ground up. Its sleek and beautiful interface brings active traders some of the more advanced research capabilities they've been seeking. The company also launched index options, as well as futures trading, adding to its existing lineup of stock, ETF, option, and cryptocurrency trading. While there has been a clear focus on improving access to a growing library of educational content, offering more retirement account benefits, and enhancing active trading capabilities. However, more advanced traders and investors who need the most sophisticated financial, research, and trading tools will find that they are not Robinhood's target audience. Robinhood was founded in 2013 by two former Stanford roommates, Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt.1 Launched with a desire to expand access to the market by reducing barriers to entry, the platform quickly found a home with young, tech-friendly traders thanks to a simple design and intuitive trading experience. As of June 11, 2025, the brokerage boasts 25.9 million funded customers and $255 billion in assets under custody. No-commission and no-account minimum trading makes it easy for beginners to get started, and the ability to trade fractional shares gives users access to a greater range of assets than they might otherwise be able to afford. Robinhood provides access to trading in stocks, options, ETFs, and direct cryptocurrencies, and also launched futures in early 2025, making its asset selection even more competitive. Robinhood is among a handful of brokers that offer a 24-hour market, allowing customers to trade select stocks and ETFs 24 hours a day, 5 days a week.5 The broker also continues to expand its Learn section with more material and has enhanced the onboarding questionnaire to help users understand investing basics while setting risk parameters that match their tolerance. Robinhood’s platform has improved in other areas, as well. Cash management enhancements, such as providing a higher interest rate on uninvested cash for its premium Gold members, as well as a cash card product, have helped to round out the platform and draw in more clients. As recently as Oct. 16, 2024, Robinhood took a major step in enhancing its active trader capabilities with the launch of its new web-based platform, Robinhood Legend.7 It also now gives clients the ability to choose tax lots when selling their positions, opening the door for potential tax savings (Investopedia)
Now for their stock, HOOD; I was waiting for the stock to go down to use it as an entry point but HOOD kept going up! I was tempted to buy it wen it was $25 but I finally got in at $40 around 11/25/24. On 1/10/24. HOOD was at $11 and on 7/3/25, it was at $94-almost a 9 fold increase! At this time the CEO of HOOD is in Europe. HOOD is a real “disruptor”. Within the next 2 years, I expect HOOD to go up to $200 to $300 per share. Per CNBC, $100 Trillion is getting transferred from the older generation to the next generation at this time and these young investors are investing and trading in a different manner. Most young people go through HOOD. When the S&P 500 index add HOOD in to their index, it will go up even higher. Instead of going up, I hope HOOD will have a major correction and I will consider it as a buying opportunity.
On 6/18/25, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the interest rate unchanged. Fed Chair Powell stated that he expects unemployment and inflation to go up in 2025. He also expects a slower growth rate for the US economy. Per the Federal Reserve, unemployment rate could rise to 4.5% in 2025.
Jeffrey Edward Gundlach is the CEO and founder of DoubleLine Capital, a fixed income investment firm managing over $120 billion in assets. He's known as the "King of Bonds". After the fed decision, Mr. Gundlach made the following comments:
· There is upside risks to inflation and unemployment.
· Each $10 increase on oil (WTI) will add 0.3% to the rate of inflation.
· Feds will fight unemployment over inflation. If unemployment rises, even at the risk of having a higher rate of inflation (i.e. 3.5%), the Feds will lower rates.
· The Bond market yield curve is steepening.
· A recession is possible. Unemployment claims keep rising.
· It is surprising that no one is talking about a possible rate hike.
· Triple C bank loan defaults are rising.
· The US dollar will keep declining.
· Avoid long term bonds.
Have a great month!