Welcome to September!
Historically the worst month for the market. Even prior to 9/1/25, some good stocks have gone down by 20% or more. Have a shopping list ready and if you see good bargains, start “nibbling” (little at a time). We should get some good buying opportunities prior to 1/1/26. All professionals have been taking profits and getting ready for a correction. However, there have been many Septembers where we did not have a meaningful correction. Now most of the stocks are overvalued and concentration is worrisome. The market cap of NVIDIA is 8% of the total S&P 500. There are more ETFs than stocks in the market. If NVIDIA falls sharply, it will take the whole market down with it.
Carley Garner is an American commodity market strategist and futures and options broker and the author of Trading Commodity Options with Creativity, Higher Probability Commodity Trading, and A Trader's First Book on Commodities, published by DT publishing an imprint of Wyatt-MacKenzie. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the most widely used momentum indicators in technical analysis. It helps traders identify overbought and oversold conditions and generates potential buy and sell signals. On 9/2/25, Ms. Garner stated per S&P500 RSI. Downsize risk and the correction risk is very high at this time.
On 9/17/25, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates. Labor market is weakening and addressing that is more important than fighting inflation. Most expect 3 rate cuts in 2025. My fear is that we could be heading for stagflation-as it happened in the 1970s. The independence of the Federal Reserve is at risk again. If that is threatened, long term bond yields could rise (and so will mortgage rates-despite what is done by the Federal Reserve) .
Tesla's board has proposed a massive, potentially trillion-dollar compensation package for CEO Elon Musk, which is contingent on the company meeting ambitious market cap and operational goals over the next decade. The package requires shareholder approval and aims to make Musk the world's first trillionaire if Tesla achieves a $8.5 trillion market capitalization, along with targets for robotaxi deployment and robot production. Notably, the plan also requires Musk to participate in a long-term succession plan to unlock the final tranches of the pay. This is excellent for people like us who holds Tesla (TSLA) stock. Current market cap of Tesla is at $1.1 Trillion (as of 9/5/25). Musk will do all he could to increase the market cap 8 fold to become the first Trillionaire. Unlike, other CEOs, Musk is fully capable of making this happen. I have gone in and out of Tesla many times. My current holding is up 148% in my personal account and it is up 158% on this newsletter portfolio (look at the scorecard).
In previous newsletters I stated that I have Robinhood (HOOD).in my personal accounts. When it was about $20 I thought of buying it but I got in only at $38. After topping at $113 on 8/11/25, now it is at $101. Ober the past 5 days, it has been rising as it is supposed to be added to the S&P500 on 9/22/25 which will make all ETFs based on the S&P500 to add it to their portfolios. HOOD is going to be the number one brokerage firm in 25 years. There is a generational wealth transfer of $100 Trillion taking place right now and most young people trade through HOOD and they have a different investment or trading philosophy. I believe that within the next 5 years, HOOD could go up by 500%. Over the past 12 months, it went from $20 to $113.
Have a great month!
Fernando