March 9 Post

Hello Again,


Nothing much to report this month. Same old story. Economic growth slow down in other countries

is keeping the Federal Reserve from increasing rates. It is the common belief of most that they will

not increase rates further in 2019 which is music to Wall Street. The biggest danger we face right

now is that if we see signs of inflation, the Feds are going to raise rates aggressively; and that will

be the death of this bull market. When addressing the Congress the Fed Chair admitted that we are

not seeing inflation even with the official rate of unemployment under 4% (which is a miracle) due

to the fact that those who gave up looking for work after the 2008 recession are coming back in to

the labor force. At that congressional hearing it was also stated that the time US real wages took a

deep dive was when China entered the World Trade Organization; however real wages have been

falling for 20+ years. Now finally it is on the rise.


When considering the future of the market, we have to look at technical analysis-Wall Street’s

crystal ball! Technical analysts believe that we are currently on the upswing but that is not of long

duration and then we are expected to have a sharp decline to the lows we saw around December

2018. If that happens, it would be another buying opportunity. I am hoping the same would happen

to GE. GE hit a low around $6.50 and it went up to $11.47 around 2/20/19 and it is at $9.45 on

3/7/19. As I was sure of the astronomical rise within a few weeks, I was also sure that it would fall

sharply. Why? Millions of traders were getting in to option trading and that is a good indicator.

Just like a tiger waits for it’s prey, wait patiently for opportunities!


Have a great month!