May 6 Post

Hi Again,

Is the correction over? Either way we are okay. What we recently had was nothing more than a bear market rally. Why did we have a big rally on 4/9/25? After a correction, the first rally is the biggest as this is due to “short covering”- bears running for the hills! Same thing happened in 1931, 1933 and 1938. I am selling some of my holdings, raising cash to take advantage of future corrections and buying hedges on the S&P500. Since I kept buying as “good stocks” as they went down, I have a paper gain of 10% to 25% on those purchases over the past few weeks. This was just a buying opportunity. How does Trump 2.0 first 100 days compare to the first 100 days of other Presidents? Per CNBC, 4/30/25, The worst was President Ford. Second worst was President Nixon. Third worst was Trump 2.0. Trump warned us that this would happen; and Wall Street did not take it seriously. Markets fluctuate and that is good.

Larry Williams is an author, and trader. His career began in 1962 and has written several best-selling market books. Larry won the 1987 World Cup Championship of Futures Trading taking $10,000 to over $1,100,000 (11,300%) in a 12-month competition with real money. On 4/30/25, Larry predicted that the dollar will change direction and will rally now. Commercial hedges on commodity markets go up as the dollar skyrockets.  November 2024 to April 2025, the US Dollar index has fallen from $102 to $98. This will help our biggest companies as they get 70% of revenue from international sales.

Carter Braxton Worth is an American financial analyst and stock market strategist. Each year since 2008, he has appeared on institutional investor's All America Research Team, ranked as one of the Top 3 technical analysts on Wall Street. On 4/29/25, Carter stated that studying the charts of the “Magnificent 7” (top 7), it is seen as a “pair of two”; using a card analogy, Carter stated that all these 7 stocks are in a dangerous place and buying them is risky. However I feel that if they fall sharply, it would be a good idea to buy(“nibble” a little at a time) and hold for a couple of years. They have the strongest balance sheets to withstand a recession.

On 4/30/25, CEO of XPO (one of the biggest freight companies) stated that he can already see electrical manufacturing moving from Mexico to Texas. Even though Wall Street expects the transition of manufacturing to take many years, I feel that it might surprise all of us and happen sooner than later. This is good for the US. Howard William Lutnick is an American businessman and philanthropist who has served as the 41st United States secretary of commerce since February 21, 2025. He is the former chairman and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald. Per Mr. Lutnick, Junior colleges, community colleges etc are training new high school graduates to work in new complex manufacturing industries that will come to the US in the near future.

Per r Warren Buffet, “When everyone is fearful, get greedy; and when everyone is greedy, get fearful”. A few weeks ago, everyone on the planet was bullish on gold. No one was skeptical or bearish. In 2023 Gold was at $1648 and it rose to $3328 on 4/17/25. A few weeks ago, expecting Gold to go down within the next 2 years, I bought some put options on Gold (GLD) that expire in 2 years. Then on 4/9/25, well known technical analyst Carly Garner stated that Gold is overvalued; and she expect the price of Gold to go down to $1650. She also expect the S&P500 to go down to 4600 !! The S&P500 closed on 5/2/25 at 5686. If it goes down to 4600, that is a 19% fall!

On 4/16/25, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated the following:

·       Immigration will not affect inflation.

·       DOGE cuts on university research will have a negative effect on future growth.

·       We are currently at “economic full employment”.

·       Trump’s tariffs are higher than Smith Harley tariffs of the 1930s that created the Great Depression.

·       Do not know what kind of impact AI will have on the economy at this time.

Jeffrey Edward Gundlach is the founder, CEO, and CIO of DoubleLine Capital, a fixed-income investment firm. He's known as the "King of Bonds" and a leading bond market expert.  On 4/7/25, Jeffrey stated:

·       Prior to 2025, “foreigners’ increased their US assets from $3 Trillion to 24 Trillion. Now due to Trump, they are moving their funds out of the US.

·       We have a massive budget deficit problem.

·       We are currently issuing the same amount of bonds as we did in response to covid.

·       Our deficit can go up to $3 Trillion.

·       This is not the end of volatility in financial markets.

·       For a short term bottom, look for 4500 on the S&P 500.

Have a great month!

Fernando

April 10 Post

Hi Again,

Did you go bargain hunting in the market last week? I did. Hopefully this correction will go much deeper. All Wall Street experts and the media acted like we were facing the end of the world. Not true. From the previous high of 611 on the S&P 500 on 2/20/25, it fell to 505 on 4/4/25 close – 17.35% drop. I was expecting (and still would like to see a 30% to 90% drop). At any time, Trump can send the market upwards. It is rare to get such buying opportunities. Do not “buy”, just “nibble”- in other words buy a little at a time or you will get caught to a “falling knife”. This is why I always said to have 50% in cash and also have a strategy to deal with corrections. Anyway, before you buy a stock (or the market), know why you are making the purchase, know when you might buy more and know when you might sell it. The stocks market is not a casino. The market close on 4/3/25 and 4/4/25 were the worst 2 days since March 2020. Remember March 2020 during Trump 1.0 (covid crisis)? I remember one of the best Wall Street billionaires Bill Ackman actually cried on CNBC asking Trump to shut down the economy. I intuitively felt that covid would get here so I was shorting the market and I turned $3,000 in to $40,000 in 3 months. Per market analyst and astrologer, Merriman, we are bound to have a very rocky market all through 2025. All commodity futures are lower so that is good for inflation expectations. On 4/3/25, when the Dow (DJIA) was down 1500+, all professionals were selling but retail (individual) investors were buying in a big way. On 4/4/25, when the market went for another big correction, even the “retail” investors were selling- except for me. As I took profits on some “shorts’ I had as puts or insurance, I bought more- “rolling it over”. Last week, what did I “buy” (nibble)? Super Micro, Vertiv, Broadcom, Dell, Nvidia, Reddit and the ETF “MAGS” which covers all the best 7 stocks known as the “Magnificent 7”. I am keeping my eye on 48 other stocks.  That is my strategy. 

VIX is the ticker symbol and the popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. Here is one of the strategies I employ. When volatility is low, this index goes below 20. Then it is cheaper to buy call options on VIX. Around 1/20/25, when VIX was below 20, I bought some call options with a strike price of 25 and sold them on 3/10/25, when VIX rose to 28. I bought more (that expire in 9 months) with a strike price of 50 , expecting the VIX to go over 50. On 4/4/25, the VIX went to 45 but I did not sell my calls as I know that VIX is sure to go to 60 within 2025.

I also had some money in Treasury bond ETF known as TLT. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF. As interest rates go down the value of this TLT will go higher. This is a nice place to keep your money. Unemployment rate is expected to move higher so if inflation is stable, Federal Reserve will lower rates. This tariff hoopla will blow over soon. I agree with Trump that we have to reverse the trend started by Reagan in outsourcing all our manufacturing and having the lowest tariff rates in the world. We get $4Trillion in imports each year. Even if we have a 10% tariff rate, that $400 billion per year-it does not matter if it gets paid by the US importers or the US consumers. US consumers are smart, they will shift to cheaper sources. Have you heard of Walmart?

Jeffrey Gundlach was formerly the head of the $9.3 billion TCW Total Return Bond Fund, where he finished in the top 2% of all funds invested in intermediate-term bonds for the 10 years that ended prior to his departure. He was fired by TCW in 2009. In the aftermath, Gundlach and TCW sued each other and went to jury trial in California; TCW alleged that Gundlach stole trade secrets (TCW prevailed, but was awarded $0 for the claim), Gundlach sued over compensation claims (Gundlach prevailed, and was awarded $66.7 Million). Soon after the Fed decision on interest rates on 3/20/25, this is what Gundlach had to say:

• Word of the day- uncertainty. 

• Inflation was upgraded.

• Expect 2 rate cuts in 2025.

• Expect a lower growth rate in 2025.

• Powell’s favorite word this time “inertia’.

• Bond yields are going up.

• Government interest expense is around $3 billion per day.

• Feds are doing less quantitative tightening to reduce rates even now.

• Inflation in 2025 expected at 2.75%.

• Powell was downplaying the risks.

• Powell may go in to quantitative easing.

• Europe (and most others) have been outperforming the US market in 2025.

• Powell said that tariffs are transitory. ( I agree)

• Leverage is at its lowest level.

• Utilities outperformed so treasuries will outperform high yields.

• He prefer short term treasuries.

• Balancing the US budget will lead to lower growth in the US.

• 50% chance of a recession in 2025.

• Rate of inflation will go down but price level (what concerns people) will remain high- it is like speed remaining high but acceleration going down.

• “Buy on rumor. Sell on the news”.

• Keep a lot of “dry powder” (cash) for buying opportunities (my old advice for 10+ years).

Have a great month!

Fernando

March 10 Post

Hi There Again,

Last month I warned that we will have many 10%+ corrections this year. Did you enjoy the mini correction we had last week? I did; I had a great time. Waking up each morning was a treat. Prior to all this, as I always do, I had some ‘hedges” as put options so when the market goes down, I can make money. At the same time, as good stocks go down in value, I “nibble’ (buy a little at a time). Or else, you can get caught to a “falling knife”. In order to reap what you sow, you have to get good opportunities to “sow” on fertile ground. I always keep 25% to 50% in cash. If my “invested” 50% go up by 50%, I make 25% on the total portfolio. Whatever happens, I can always rise up again.

First a few things about some of my hedges. I am not mentioning my S&P 500 “hedges” (puts) as those are for market crashes (20%+). Last December all the Wall Street experts were saying that the future for the retail industry was great. Not a single expert had doubts. It did not make sense to me. Trump was promising tariffs on everything and that was not good for the consumers. So I decided to take a “bet” against the retailers and buy puts on the ETF known as XRT (SPDR S&P Retail ETF ). On 1/15/25, I bought put options on XRT when it was at $78. I bought XRT puts with an expiry date 1/15/2027, with a strike price $55, expecting XRT to go down to $55 prior to 2027. On 3/7/25, my put options had a paper gain of 80% in 51 days!

What is the VIX aka “Fear Index”? CBOE Volatility Index. You cannot buy and sell the VIX. You are only allowed to buy/sell call and put options. When the VIX goes below 20 (lower the better), it is a time to buy Call options to hedge against a future correction. In the same way, when the VIX is 45+ , it is a good time to buy puts on the VIX and an excellent time to buy stocks. When the VIX is over 30, it is a danger sign. On 1/23/25 I bought a Call (expecting future volatility) on VIX expiring 9/17/25 with a strike price of $35-in 39 days, it was up 17%!

When the greatest stock on Wall Street, NVIDIA was around $150 on 11/21/24, expecting it to drop 2/3 by 2027. As a hedge against my big holdings of NVIDIA, I bought put options with a strike price of $50 with an expiry date of 1/15/2027. In 3 months it was up by 30%! I am still bullish on Nvidia and I keep buying (nibbling) the stock as it moves lower.

I have some BITCOINS through the ETF known as “IBIT”. As a hedge against my holdings, on 1/22/25, I bought some puts that expire on 1/16/2026 with a strike price of $35. In just 40 days, on 3/3/25, my puts were up by 20%.

We are heading towards a recession. Probably stagflation (high unemployment + high inflation) as we had in the 1970s. Consumer spending is 70% the US GDP (Gross Domestic Product or total economic activity). On 2/28/25, Yahoo Finance stated that consumer spending dropped to its lowest level in 4 years. Ron Insana, economist sated that bond market activity shows that we are heading towards a recession. On 2/25/25, US Consumer confidence level dropped by 7%. Univ of Michigan is good at economic stats, and on 2/27/25, they predicted the rate of inflation to go up to 4.2% in 2025. When we had the November election, it was 2.5%-close to the Fed Reserve target of 2%. On 2/27/25, pessimism among retail investors was up to 60%- this happened only 6 times in history. For me this is a bullish sign. To paraphrase the great, Warren Buffet, “When others get afraid, get greedy; and when others get greedy, get afraid”. This is a time to buy slowly (nibble) and not a time to sell. If you are in good stocks, be patient and you will see gains in the future. A few months ago, and up to a certain extent, even now, euphoria is very high. On 3/7/25, CNBC reported that short interest is at an all time high. Hedging too is at an all time high. Private Capital too is going down. Per a trader on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, big hedge funds are unloading a lot of US and Global equities. The market may not go down in a straight line but expect a lot of volatility in 2025. I love it! Buying opportunities!

What opportunities did I find last week? What did I  buy (nibble on) ? 1- NVIDIA, 2- Reddit, 3- Super Micro Comp or SMCI. 4- Taiwan Semi or TSM, 5- Tesla or TSLA, Trade Desk or TTD.

Take Tesla (TSLA); by 3/7/25, it has lost $550 billion of market cap; and NVIDIA has lost 1 trillion of market cap! On 11/4/24, Tesla was at $244. On 12/18/24, it peaked at $488. On 3/7/24 it has come down to $262. There is a saying that “when the market (or a stock) bottoms, a bell does not go off”. Those who wait for such a signal, will end up missing an opportunity. Also now everyone is pessimistic on Tesla. I am NOT. Those who think of Tesla as a car company do not get it. It is a technology company-future in robots, robo taxis etc. A couple of years ago when Metta went down to $85, all experts were saying that Zuckerberg is lost in his Metaverse etc. I bought it at $85 and sold it at $650. How do you nibble? Buy 1 share of Tesla at $262 now. When Tesla goes down to $225, buy 10 shares, when it goes down to $200, buy 1,000 shares and when it goes down to $150, buy 10,000 shares. Get the picture?

I always loved studying stock option tables. For each good stock, there are about 1,000 related options (calls to be long and puts to sell short). When covid hit China, Trump was saying that covid will never get to the US. I did not believe it. At that time, Disney had a market price of about $150. When I checked option tables I saw that put options with a strike price of $50 was going for $0.90, that expire in 12 months. In layman terms, this option expired in 12 months, 1 option contract controls 100 shares so one contract was a mere $90 so if Disney fell from $150 to $50 in 12 months, my $90 option contract could go up to $10,000!! Like a lottery! I did not expect to make money but $90 is no big deal. In one week my options doubled in price and 3 months later, what I bought for $90 per contract, I sold for $850 per contract! As of 3/7/25, I was looking at Tesla option tables. Tesla call options expiring in 2027, with a strike price $800 were at $2900 per contract (that controls 100 shares). In other words, people are paying $2900 per contract assuming that Tesla stock will be over $800 in 2 years! If not, they lose everything. Here is how you can make money- instead of being the “gambler”, be the “casino”. Buy 100 shares of Tesla now for $26,000. Sell 1 “covered call option contract” on your 100shares of Tesla with a strike price of $800 and an expiry date of 6/17/2027. You will get $2900 now but you cannot sell your 100 shares till that option is open (maybe till 6/17/27). Let us assume that on 6/17/27, Tesla is above $800; the person who bought your options will assign your option and buy your Tesla 100 shares at $800. You bought for $260 and then you sell at $800. You also get to keep the $2900 premiums you collected. Now assume on 6/17/27, Tesla is below $800, then you get to keep your 100 shares of Tesla you bought on 3/7/25 and you also get to keep the $2900 in premiums you collected on 3/7/25. Not a bad deal! I am confident that Tesla will exceed the $480 (top it reached in December 2024) in the future. Food for thought!

Gene Munster is Managing Partner & Co-Founder of  Loup Ventures, a research-driven venture capital firm based in Minneapolis and New York investing in frontier tech companies. Prior to Loup Ventures, Gene was a managing director and senior research analyst at Piper Jaffray where he covered technology companies including Apple, Amazon, Google and Facebook. During his 21-year tenure, Gene received acknowledgements including: Best on the Street from The Wall Street Journal, Top Stock Picker from Forbes, and was widely recognized for his work on Apple. Gene Munster is the ultimate expert on tech stocks. On 3/7/25, Gene stated that AI company fundamentals look very strong (despite China’s DeepSeek scare) and these stock will rally for the next 2 years and then this “bubble’ will burst. Nvidia revenue growth is expected to accelerate in 2026. As for Tesla, he said to expect lower prices in the short term but best positioned to benefit from AI.

I am keeping my eyes on the “brokerage” house of the very young called Robinhood (symbol: HOOD). If this goes down, I will buy more. Future prospects are very good. Now most firms do not charge commission on trades due to the innovative measures taken by HOOD. On 2/25/25, the CEO of HOOD stated the following:

·       They have over 25 million funded customers.

·       $204 Billion assets under management.

·       They operate in the US, UK and Europe and has plans to expand in to Asia.

·       One can trade any financial instrument with HOOD.

·       It is a platform for active traders.

·       They have instruments to predict the future of markets.

·       HOOD stock up by 217% in one year.

Have a great month! Enjoy the correction (s)!

Fernando

February 10 Post

Hi Again,

2025 is going to be exciting! Chaos create opportunities!

Most Wall Street experts have been comparing the past few years to the “roaring 20s”- too much euphoria. Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 sparked trade wars in the 1930s. The act was a protectionist trade policy that increased tariffs on imports to the United States. In response, other countries raised their tariffs on U.S. exports, which made it harder for the U.S. to recover from the Great Depression. Will history repeat itself? We are sure to have chaos and that is not a bad thing. Chaos create opportunities. On 1/8/25, the CEO of Global Capital stated that he expects the rate of inflation to rise up to 3.5% in 2025 (from 2.5% in 2024). On 1/10/25, the Chief Economist of Appollo Global stated that the Federal Reserve might raise rates in 2025

Mohamed Abdullah El-Erian is an Egyptian-American economist and businessman. He is President of Queens' College, Cambridge, and chief economic adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he was CEO and co-chief investment officer. Per Mr. El Erian, the US Dollar keeps rising as the US economy is doing better than all other countries. Growth is higher than expected and inflation is stickier than expected. Oil (Brent) is over $80 due to Russian sanctions. 

Over the past few years, NVIDIA was the best performing stock and all market experts believed that it would go up endlessly. A few weeks ago I did some profit taking and as a hedge bought some put options on NVIDIA. On the hedge, I did not expect to see a ‘paper gain” till the end of 2026. My hedge- NVIDIA, expiry date : 1/15/2027. Strike price : $50. At that time NVIDIA was trading at $149 so I expected it drop by about 2/3 by January 2027. Amazingly, on 2/3/25, after a mere 74 days, I have a “paper gain” of 47%. I am not selling my hedge but I am buying more stocks. As Warren Buffet states, “ When others are fearful, get greedy: and when others are greedy, get fearful”. Warren Buffet has been selling stocks for the past few months. 

Jessica Inskip, Director of Investor Research at StockBrokers.com, has been immersed in the world of finance since July 2009, accumulating 15 years of expertise in the field. Formerly the director of education and product at OptionsPlay, Jessica's insights have made her a sought-after guest and commentator at financial outlets such as CNBC, Fox Business, and Yahoo Finance. On 1/10/25, Jessica stated:

• Technology stocks (ticker: XLK) made bearish crossover sell signal on 1/10/25.

• SPX (S&P 500) turned negative as of 1/10/25.

• “Magnificent 7” will be resistant to higher bond yields and they will do better than the other 493 stocks.

Prior to 1/1/25, especially prior to 12/1/24, all market experts were extremely bullish on retail stocks (SPDR S&P Retail ETF). To me that was confusing. Trump has been warning that tariffs are coming so I bought some put options on XRT to short-sell XRT. My options expire in January 2026 and I bought them on 11/27/24, and on 1/14/25 (in 48 days), I sold those puts (strike price $65) with a gain of 41.57%. 

Keep an eye on Bitcoins and Cryptos. Bitcoin prices fluctuate wildly. This is a very good “play ground” for disciplined traders. As Warren Buffet states, “ When others are fearful, get greedy: and when others are greedy, get fearful”. Five years ago Bitcoins were at $6,000 and now it is hovering over $100,000. Since the election, all have been too euphoric about Bitcoins so I am ready to see at least a mini crash in the future. That would be a buying opportunity. Interactive Brokers is one of the best brokerage firms in the US. On 1/21/25, the CEO of Interactive Brokers stated that he is extremely concerned about the “crypto bubble” and margin buying is at a dangerous level. The Federal Reserve look at the commodity market to figure out what to expect from inflation. Carley Garner is an American commodity market strategist and futures and options broker and the author of Trading Commodity Options with Creativity, Higher Probability Commodity Trading, and A Trader's First Book on Commodities, published by DT publishing an imprint of Wyatt-MacKenzie. On 1/27/25, Carly Garner stated that corn, cattle are red hot. Expect high inflation and higher rates. 

Plantir Tech! Plantir! Over the past few months all experts were saying that Plantir has a great future but it is extremely overvalued. On 1/7/25, I bought a few shares and my strategy was to buy more as it went down in the future. As it has happened to me many times, Plantir kept moving up. On 2/4/25, what I bought on 1/7/25 was up by 50% (in just 28 days)! This is a win-win strategy- if it goes down , I buy more and if it keeps shooting up, I enjoy the ride. This depends on the stock/company.  With companies like Intel and Boeing, it will not work. Also it is important to have 50% in cash at all times. Those who are 100% invested will suffer when we have a big crash. 

On 1/29/25, Fed Chair Powell made the decision to keep interest rates unchanged. It was very much expected. Powell stated:

• Our economy is strong. The labor market has cooled. Inflation close to their target of 2%. Labor market solid. Unemployment rate has stabilized at 4.1%.

• The Labor market is not inflationary.

• He had no contact with Trump. 

• Short end bond market shows inflationary pressures.

• Will watch fiscal policy changes and react accordingly.

• Will wrap of “monetary policy review” by the end of summer 2025.

• Still believes diversity in the work place translates to the success of US companies.

• Looking at 12 month inflation to avoid seasonality.

• Rental/housing inflation is coming down.

• Job hiring rate has come down but if you have a job, you are doing okay.

• Flow of labor has come down significantly.

• No comment to the comment made by some that the Federal Reserve is overstaffed.

• Will not comment on tariffs. Has a wait and see attitude.

Jeffrey Gundlach was formerly the head of the $9.3 billion TCW Total Return Bond Fund, where he finished in the top 2% of all funds invested in intermediate-term bonds for the 10 years that ended prior to his departure. As he always do on “Fed Day”. On 1/29/25, Jeffrey made the following observations about the Federal Reserve:

• Rate of inflation is going up.

• The Feds on hold (when it comes to rate changes) till rate of inflation goes down.

• Do not expect rate cuts. 

• Very concerned about the re-evaluation of bond risks by rating agencies. This is what led to the financial crisis of 2007/2008.

• Probably one rate cut in 2025-maximum 2.

• Except of California, housing inflation will go down.

• “Meaningfully, above the neutral rate”.

• Rates have not peaked.

• Mortgage rates (tied to the 10 year bond) have been around 7% for the past 18 months.

• Inflation will not go down to 2%.

• Feds use the commodity market prices to figure out future inflation trends and it looks bad right now.

• Avoid long end bonds.

• During “Trump 1.0” tariffs did not lead to inflation but we had a very different economy at that time. Covid and supply side limitations caused inflation for the first time since the 1980s.

• Budget deficits will not go down with tax cuts.

• Jeffrey likes cash- can get 6% easy.

• Stocks are overvalued.

• Gold is close to peak. 

Per market analyst/astrologer, Merriman, 2/9/25:

• The market volatility, along with geopolitical uncertainty and disruptions may not let us next week. We are still under the astrological “retrograde chaos”.

• Financial markets may be caught by surprise, leading to sudden and sharp price fluctuations both ways. This is not a favorable market for those who are not nimble.

• The change most people want is for a stable system they can rely on for the purpose of personal planning for years, not months. Just as Democrats misread this over the past four years, Republicans may be doing the same now that they are in power. Change that does not provide stability is not the ticket for support.

• Right now, the “sweet spot’ seems far away as the pendulum swings back and forth at the extremes in 2025-2026. In turn, equity markets are apt to fluctuate wildly, with mora than one 10% or greater selloff- which has not happened since 2022.

Have a great month!

Fernando

January 8 Post

Hi! Happy New Year!

On our portfolio (given in our scorecard), we had a 52% net gain for 2024! The S&P index

went up only by 24% in 2024 and the S&P for 2023 and 2024 went up by 49%.

 Over the last 15 years: 88% of active large-cap funds failed to beat the S&P 500. 

 Over the first half of 2024: 18.2% of actively managed funds that benchmarked to the

S&P 500 beat the index. 

Patting myself on the back!

Since September 2024, the Federal Reserve has been reducing the interest rate (by 75 bps) but

the bond market has increased the rate by 1% so mortgage rates have been climbing. Only once

in history; did this happen-in 1981 when Volker tried to lower rates. The bond market is

worried about inflation and deficits. If bond yields keep rising, investors will sell their stocks to

buy bonds and the stock market would crash as it happened in 1987. However, there is another

school of thought- people are selling bonds now to buy stocks so bond yields are going up. 2025

will be very exciting!

On 12/18/24, the news media was complaining that the market (Dow Jone-DJIA) had its longest

losing streak since 1974 (when Ford occupied the white house) which ended with a 1,000 +

point drop on 12/18/24 after the Federal Reserve decision. I just could not understand the hype.

The DJIA fell from about 43,000 to 42,000 (or so). This is nothing. We did not have a single

10% correction in 2024. That is unhealthy. I always have some put options on the S&P 500

(SPY) as a hedge against a big correction (or crash). On 11/13/24, I bought some puts on the

SPY (expiring June 2025, strike price $400). This was a hedge against a 20% drop in the market

but when the ‘market’ dropped 1,000+ points on 12/18/24, I was able to sell my put options

with a 55.3% gain! Traders are investors are getting unreasonable and expecting the market to

drop soon. Nvidia is the star of the market. A few weeks ago I started to trim my Nvidia

holdings and I put in a little bit of money in to Nvidia put options as a hedge. The puts I bought

expire on 1/15/2027, with a strike price of $50- in other words, Nvidia has to fall by 70% for

me to make a profit. I did not expect to make money on this hedge till the end of 2026. By then

Broadcom and others might take some market share from Nvidia. To my amazement, on

12/20/24, my Nvidia puts had a paper gain of 9.26%!

On 12/18/24, The US Federal Reserve decided to cut the interest rate by another 25 bases

points. Soon after the announcement, this what Fed Chair Powell had to say:

 Inflation is going down to 2% but the rate has slowed.

 Housing inflation is going down but slower than expected.

 Expect a slower rate of interest rate cuts in 2025.

 The Feds are closer to a “neutral” rate.

 The US economy is “very, very” good. It is better than all other countries.

 They are in a “new phase”- “meaningful but restrictive”.

2

 By law, the Fed Reserve cannot own Bitcoins-unless congress changes the law.

 It is clear that we avoided a recession.

 People are feeling “higher prices” and not “higher inflation”.

 They are going to be cautious about more rate cuts.

 US economy has not felt the effects of geopolitics.

 Long term inflation expectations are well anchored.

Jeffrey Gundlach was formerly the head of the $9.3 billion Total Return Bond Fund, where he

finished in the top 2% of all funds invested in intermediate-term bonds for the 10 years that

ended prior to his departure. He was fired by TCW in 2009. In the aftermath, Gundlach and

TCW sued each other and went to jury trial in California; TCW alleged that Gundlach stole

trade secrets (TCW prevailed, but was awarded $0 for the claim), Gundlach sued over

compensation claims (Gundlach prevailed, and was awarded $66.7 Million). After every Fed

Reserve decision, Mr. Gundlach makes a statement on CNBC and on 12/18/24, this is what he

had to say:

 Now more confusion than ever before.

 Inflation has not improved since September 2024.

 No aggressive rate cuts in 2025. It will be at a slower rate. Very bad for the stock market.

 Now the Feds are extremely data dependent.

 Inflation will not get to 2% (Fed target) in 2025.

 Inflation could go up to 3% in 2025.

 Maximum of 2 rate cuts in 2025.

 Pause in cuts is coming.

 No rate cut in January.

 The future is unpredictable.

 Trumps proposed policies are inflationary. Rates could go up.

 When the feds were cutting rates over the past 3 months, the bond market raised rates up

by 8 base points. Mortgage rates are connected to treasury rates.

 Bond yields look good. It is easy to get safe bons with a yield of 7%. Since the Feds are

pausing, bond yields will remain high.

 The US dollar has been spiking. Bad for US exports.

 We cannot resolve our debt problem by growing the economy. “Arithmetic does not add

up”.

 Interest rates on the US debt has gone from $300 Billion to $1.3 Trillion.

 30 years ago, Ross Perot was correct about the interest payment problem. (Herbert W

Bush started raising taxes, which was continued by Clinton so during the Clinton years

for the first time since WW2, we had a balanced budget but Gearge W destroyed that

with his massive tax cuts).

 Short end treasuries look better than the long end (i.e. 20 yr, 30 yr).

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 His advise- Increase your cash position to 30%+. Gold and Bitcoins will do well in the

future but he does not recommend bitcoins.

Rick Rieder, managing director, is BlackRock's chief investment officer of Global Fixed

Income, head of the Fundamental Fixed Income business, head of the Global Allocation

Investment team, a member of BlackRock's Global Operating Committee, and chairman of the

firm-wide BlackRock Investment Council. This is what Mr. Rieder has to say on 12/19/24:

 Equity volatility double due to the Fed decision on rate cuts.

 Inflation is done coming down.

 The probability of Feds hiking rates in 2025 is very high.

 Past 12/17/24, all markets looked “bubblish”.

 Now it is a little healthy.

 3 to 4 year bonds look good.

 Due to budget deficits/debt, buy gold and bitcoins; but recent high prices is a warning

sign.

Raymond A. Merriman is the President of The Merriman Market Analyst, Inc. and founder of

the Merriman Market Timing Academy. He is a Commodities Trading Advisor (CTA),

financial market analyst, and editor of the MMA Cycles Report, a monthly market advisory

newsletter that specializes in stocks, interest rates, currencies, precious metals, crude oil and

soybeans since 1982. He also writes a daily and weekly report for more active traders.

Merriman is also well-known as a professional astrologer, having studied the subject since

1967, and receiving his professional certification form AFA (American Federation of

Astrologers) in 1972. Four years ago, when no one suspected, using astrology, Merriman

predicted that Joe Biden will not run for President in 2024 as he would be “disabled or too sick”

to do so. Then he stated that Kamala would have a better chance but even Kamala cannot beat

Trump as this is a very good time astrologically for Trump. That is credibility! On 12/23/24,

Merriman stated, “It’s chaos time. It is Jupiter in Gemini square Saturn in Pisces. Its Mars

retrograde. Next week, it will be Venus square Uranus. As expected, this holiday season is not

likely to be boring. So let’s try to be merry and embrace the excitement of the unexpected and

the chaos and entertainment that comes with it. Think of the next few months as a huge tide

coming in , and then the riptide starts as the waves go back out. In the US, the efforts may be to

drain the swamp but the results may instead seem like a man made tsunami. Here, we have all

the cosmic elements that lead to huge swings in financial markets. I expect we have at least two

stock market reversals exceeding 10%, may be even more than 25% (in one case) It should be

quite exciting! Hold on! Hang tight! The tide is now rising! It is a fine time to learn the

principles of surfing”

Have a great 2025!

Fernndo

December 4 Post

Hi Again,

Take a look at the scorecard. We had a 8.96% gain for our portfolio in November. Now all

markets are in a bubble so be very careful. Carley Garner is an American commodity market

strategist and futures and options broker and the author of Trading Commodity Options with

Creativity, Higher Probability Commodity Trading, and A Trader's First Book on Commodities,

published by DT publishing an imprint of Wyatt-MacKenzie. On 11/12/24, Carly predicted that

the S&P 500 could go down significantly. Carter Braxton Worth is an American financial

analyst and stock market strategist. Each year since 2008, he has appeared on institutional

investor's All America Research Team, ranked as one of the Top 3 technical analysts on Wall

Street. Carter is married to Andrée Jill Finkle. On 11/3/24, Carter stated that “home builder”

stocks should go down and recommended buying put options on ITB ( iShares US Home

Construction ETF) as option premiums have declined.

On 11/13/24, inflation figures (Core CPI) came in showing that inflation is “sticky” and not

going down to 2%. Short end yields on the treasuries were going down while the long end kept

rising due to budget deficits. On 11/20/24, Fed Governor Bowman stated that the progress we

have been seeing on the inflation front has slowed. Do not expect rate cuts!

Bitcoin supply is limited but the demand keeps growing. Trump is expected to buy 6% of all

Bitcoins for a government reserve. Ever since a Trump victory was expected, Bitcoin prices

have been skyrocketing. When the “Yen Carry trade” fell through and Bitcoins fell about 25%,

for a trade I bought the Bitcoin ETF IBIT on 8/6/24 at $31.83. On 12/3/24, IBIT is at $54.46- a

71% gain within 4 months.

MicroStrategy is a business intelligence (BI) firm that was founded in 1989 by Michael J.

Saylor and Sanju Bansal. Saylor started MicroStrategy with $250,000 in start-up capital from

DuPont, where he had a consulting contract. The company's software was inspired by a course

on systems-dynamics theory at MIT. MicroStrategy's first major client was McDonald's, with a

$10 million contract in 1992. The company's revenues increased by 100% each year between

1990 and 1996. MicroStrategy went public on June 11, 1998. Saylor was initially skeptical of

Bitcoin, but became a believer around 2020. He began adding Bitcoin to MicroStrategy's

treasury, believing it would give the company an advantage over the long term. MicroStrategy's

Bitcoin holdings have made it a way for investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without buying it

directly. As of November 25, 2024, MicroStrategy held 386,700 Bitcoin, which is 1.84% of the

total that will ever be mined. To start with, MicroStrategy provided a way for investors to gain

access to Bitcoin without having to buy futures contracts or purchase tokens on a random

cryptocurrency exchange. Following its latest round of buying activity, MicroStrategy holds

386,700 Bitcoin (as of Nov. 25), which represents 1.84% of the 21 million Bitcoin that'll ever

be mined. No company comes remotely close to holding as many Bitcoin in reserve as

MicroStrategy. It's often easy for investors to buy or sell shares of companies that trade on

major U.S. exchanges, and there's minimal concern about nefarious activity or theft, which isn't

always the case when buying Bitcoin directly on overseas cryptocurrency exchanges. Second,

2

MicroStrategy is benefiting from first-mover advantages. In addition to Bitcoin being the first

decentralized cryptocurrency, MicroStrategy is the first public company to effectively adopt

Bitcoin purchasing/investing as an operating model. Investors have a tendency to flock to

businesses that are first movers in ultra-popular trends. Third, MicroStrategy has found a way,

for the moment, to use leverage to its advantage. The company has been issuing ultra-low-yield

or 0% yield convertible senior notes to raise capital to purchase Bitcoin. These convertible notes

allow the holder to either be repaid in full, or convert their note into shares of MicroStrategy at

a premium to where they are now. On social media message boards, you might see this strategy

referred to as "MicroStrategy's infinite money glitch." Convertible note sales allow the company

to buy more Bitcoin, which in turn increases the price of the world's largest cryptocurrency and

allows the company to issue more convertible notes. It's a repeating cycle that's undeniably

played a role in pushing Bitcoin close to the psychologically important $100,000-per-token

level. While there's no question that MicroStrategy has proved the skeptics wrong, thus far,

history has a way of rhyming on Wall Street. Similar leverage-driven scenarios like this have

always eventually (key word!) ended in pain for the companies and shareholders behind them.

Bradley Thomas Gerstner is an American investor and hedge fund manager. He is Founder,

chairman and CEO of Altimeter Capital. Gerstner appeared on the 2022 Forbes Midas List after

his firm's successful investments in Snowflake and Grab. Brad is the ultimate expert on

technology stocks. On 11/21/24, Brad stated:

 Nvidia announced a blockbuster quarter on 11/20/24

 Nvidia price will rise while Intel and other chip stock prices will decline.

 2025 will be a robotaxi year and Tesla will benefit.

 This is not good for Uber.

 Time to buy software stocks.

 Time to get out of stocks like Pfizer

At times, like buying a lottery, I put in a little bit of money on stocks that might rise

significantly in the future (even though the fundamentals are pretty bad). The next phase of

computing is going to be “Quantum Computing”. On 11/15/24, I bought QUBT and RGTI after

doing a little bit of research. 11/15/24 to 11/25/24, in 10 days, QUBT was up 131% and RGTI

was up by 95%! On 11/25/24, Jim Cramer (on CNBC) stated that “people are buying anything

with quantum in the name”! So true! As if he read my mind! Jim stated that QUBT is up 500%

and it was a beverage company till 2018. Cramer said that these are signs that the market is in a

bubble and it makes him nervous. I agree 100%. That is why I always have some put options as

a hedge (if I lose the money, it is a tax deduction). All markets are in a bubble- Stocks, Gold,

Biotcoins etc. etc. Buyer beware!

Have a Merry Christmas!

Fernando

November 11 Post

Hi Again,

October was very uneventful. Markets waited for November – Elections and the Fed Meeting.

At this time, all the markets (stocks, cryptos, gold etc) are in a bubble but bubbles can go on

expanding for years-especially when we have a $6 Trillion in money market funds and the Feds

are determined to keep lowering rates in to a very healthy economy. All bubbles end in crashes

but nothing to fear. I never understood why people feared crashes. Crashes give us amazing

buying opportunities. How would you like to buy Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta at 50% of its

current price? If that happens, I will buy call options and make a 1,000% profit within 12

months. 99% of the time, markets are dull and boring.

Carolyn Boroden has been a commodity trading advisor and technical analyst for

more than 20 years and has worked on many of the major trading floors in the U.S.

She is founder and president of Synchronicity Market Timing, LLC, a Fibonacci

trading advisory service. On 11/5/24, Carolyn stated:

 The 5 day moving average moved below the 13 day moving average so on

11/5/24, the market was in a risky state.

 She expected the market to bottom anytime after 11/5/24.

 S&P 500 made a bottom on 11/4/24.

After the 11/7/24 Federal Reserve decision, Fed Chair Powell had a news

conference:

 The economy is strong.

 The labor market has cooled.

 Wages are rising but consistent with inflation.

 Over the past 3 years, inflation declined from 7% to 2.8%. (Since we did not

have deflation, still we feel the impact of 7% inflation-2.8% is over the 7% we

previously had. Economists do not like deflation as deflation always come

with a deep recession).

 On 11/7/24, interest rate was cut by 25 Bps.

 The Fed Reserve is still in the process of reducing their balance sheet. (That is

like increasing rates).

 At this point, the unemployment rate is at 4.1%-the labor market is not tight as

it used to be and not a source of inflation.

2

 Elections do not have an impact on their decisions. As Fed Chair stated, “We

do not guess or speculate”.

 They have been watching bond yields rising.

 No comments on fiscal policy. If asked by Trump, he will not resign and not

concerned about Trump demoting or firing any of the Board members. He

said, “No. Not legal”. The Fed Reserve is only accountable to the congress.

Expect to see fireworks in the congress in 2025! Markets would fluctuate

wildly giving us amazing buying opportunities!

 If congress changes tax laws as they have promised to do, the Fed Reserve

will create econometric models to reflect those changes and change monetary

policy accordingly.

 New rent leases show deflation but still old leases are hurting people.

 Rate of inflation is coming down-even with insurance premiums.

Jeffrey Edward Gundlach (aka “Bond King”) is an American businessman,

investor, and philanthropist. He is the founder of DoubleLine Capital, an investment

firm. As he always does, soon after the Fed interest rate change, he made the

following observations:

 Bond rates started going up expecting a Trump victory as all economists

expect worse deficits under Trump

 Per household surveys, during the past 11 months, we had a loss of jobs.

Economy is not strong.

 Supply of treasury bonds is astonishing due to the $1.3Trillion deficit. Very

troubling.

 Do not buy the 20 or the 30 year old bonds. Do not be exposed to the growing

deficit problem.

 New rent leases show no inflation but old leases still show inflation.

 Trump’s policies will raise inflation and deficits. Also, tax cuts will raise the

yields on long bonds.

 Trump has always been a debt guy.

 During the CNBC, he made a shout out to Elon Musk, “Elon, if you hear this,

call me. I can show you how to cut 2 Trillion off the Federal Budget”.

 Around 1980, investors considered IBM bonds to be safer than US Treasuries!

 Bad to have tax cuts or extend tax cuts.

 He is writing a “white paper” on the economy.

3

 The dollar is influenced by treasury rates.

 The Federal Reserve follows the 2 year Treasury. Look at history!

 He praised Fed Chair Powell saying that “Trump cannot fire me. Not legal”.

The Federal Reserve only accountable to the congress.

 Still likes India for the long run. Manufacturing is moving from China to

India and Mexico.

 Bitcoins, gold, silver in a bubble. Central Banks around the world are buying

gold like crazy!

 He owns gold but not bitcoins (too risky).

Have a great month!

Fernando

Oct 6 Post

Hi Again,

Last month the Federal Reserve, as expected, cut the interest rate by 50 BP but amazingly the

bond market kept raising rates! They are not going to get the desired effect. Mortgage rates are

linked to the 10 year treasury so mortgage rates have been rising too. The most popular ETF for

Treasuries is TLT- iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). On 9/16/24 TLT was at $101

and by 10/4/24 it was at $95- 5.94% reduction in 18 days.

Carley Garner is an experienced futures and options broker with DeCarley Trading, a division

of Zaner Group, in Las Vegas, Nevada. Her commodity market analysis is often referenced on

Jim Cramer’s Mad Money on CNBC and she is a regular contributor to TheStreet.com and its

Real Money Pro service. Garner is also a regular on the speaking circuit and can be found at

TradersEXPOs and MoneyShows throughout the country. On 10/4/24 (CNBC), Carly stated

that most bond market professionals have a net short position on the 10 year Treasury as short

contracts increased by one million. Bloated budget deficits expected under Trump and Harris is

making bond gurus nervous. Carly expects these people to get hurt in the future as it is never a

good idea to “fight the feds”. When these people run to cover their shorts, we could see yields

going lower in a big way.

I sent my last newsletter on 9/2/24, and on 9/3/24 my predictions came true. On 9/3/24,

S&P500 was down 2%, Nasdaq was down 3% and the volatility index (aka Fear Index) was up

by 5%! My VIX call options were up by 21% in one day. Some of my put options on the

Nasdaq (QQQ) were up by 64%. On 8/16/24, I bought some call options on the VIX, expiring

June 2025, with a strike price of $20; and in 1 days, on 9/4/24, I sold them with a gain of 124%!

On 9/6/24, per Carter Worth (Carter Braxton Worth, a 35-year Wall Street veteran, is

the CEO/Founder of Worth Charting LLC. He was Head of Technical Analysis at Cornerstone

Macro Research beginning in 2016. Prior to his role at Cornerstone, he was Chief Market

Technician at Sterne Agee and at Oppenheimer Holdings Inc.) stated that the dollar has been

going down and oil has been going down and now the stock market will go down. He also

stated that Nividia is a good buy at this time and on a PE basis, it has not been this “cheap” in

about 2 years.

With the expected slow down in the economy and due to other factors (except for the 2 wars),

oil prices are expected to drop in the future. Saudis warned that if OPEC members cheat on

their contractual agreements, Saudis will bring down the price to $50. If China finally

stimulates domestic consumption, that could be bullish for oil traders. Most US experts believe

that oil will drop to $70. It is a triple top in the 5-year chart. High for the past 6 months was $82

and in 2020, it dropped below $25.

On 9/18/24, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated:

 The economy is strong

 Inflation is at 2.2% (up to August 2024)

 The labor market had cooled

 Inflation has eased substantially

 Goals on inflation/employment is balanced now

 Now going to normalize rates without giving up on inflation (dual mandate)

 Consumer remains resilient

 Will make future decisions based on data (month to month).

 Not in a hurry to reduce rates

 Long term inflation expectations are well anchored

 All 19 members of the Fed Reserve wanted 3 more cuts in 2024

 The time to support the labor market is when the labor market is strong or else it is too

late.

 In the future, will not go down to 0% or negative rates.

Mr. Jeffrey Gundlach is CEO of DoubleLine. In 2011, he appeared on the cover of Barron's as

"The New Bond King." In 2013. After every Fed decision, Mr. Gundlach appears on CNBC and

this is what he had to say on 9/18/24:

 The Feds should have cut rates in July 2024

 Long end bond rates are up after the Fed cut as they are afraid that inflation might re-

ignite.

 Buy gold

 The Fed Fund rate will get to 3.5% prior to December 2025.

 They might cut another 50% in November (after the elections)

 They do not care about elections

 Job reports are about 75,000 overstated (per the Fed Reserve)

 Private Capital is in a bubble

 Expect weaker economic reports in the future

 Future evidence will show that a recession started in September 2024

 Powell quite confident of the future trend of inflation

 Powell does not expect a recession

 Long term bond yields will continue to rise

 Feds will lower rates by another 75 BPS

 No one knows what would happen to the housing market

 Long term Treasuries are the best hiding place for investors.

 Inverted to de-inverted yield curve is predicting a recession

 As the dollar is going down, buy foreign stocks. Gundlach is bullish on India

3

 Long bonds will not rally in the future

 Recession will be good for long bonds

 Rents are going lower but it will take time

 Private markets are bad as they do not have “market to market’ valuations

 Russell 200 will benefit more than the S&P 500.

Have a great month!

Fernando

September 2 Post

Hi Again,

I sent out my last newsletter on Sunday 8/4/24. Next day, Monday (8/5/24), the market opened

with a mini crash and for a couple of hours, no one was able to get in to their accounts at

Fidelity and Charles Schwabs. What is the VIX or the volatility index? VIX is the ticker

symbol and the popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility

Index, a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index

options. Prior to 8/2/24, On 7/10/24, VIX was at 13. I bought some call options on VIX on

8/2/24 with a strike price of 50. On 8/5/24, market opened with the VIX hiking up to 65 but I

could not sell my options as Fidelity and Schwabs were both down due to heavy volume. This

all happened due to the unwinding of the “Yen Carry Trade” (mostly shorting the Yen, and

going long the NASDAQ via QQQ) as the Japanese central bank surprised the world with an

interest rate hike due to inflation in Japan. The Japanese market (Nekei) had its biggest drop

since “black Monday” in 1987. I do not believe that this story is over yet. After the Lehman

Brother went down in 2008, it took another 6 months or so for the “next shoe” to drop. Per

some experts, this event killed 3 financial institutions in the US. Per former Fed President of

Dallas, 1987 crash also was started in Asia. From 7/3/24 to 8/5/24, NASDAQ fell $2 Trillion.

8/5/24 was the worst day for S&P500 since 2022. On 7/29/24, Bitcoin was at 69,351 but on

8/5/24, it fell to 54,237. This too was a direct result of the unwinding of the “Yen Carry Trade”.

I do not believe in the Bitcoin concept (US should have banned it years ago) but on 8/5/24, I

bought some Bitcoin through an ETF. Joe Brusuelas has over 20 years of experience in finance

and economics. He specializes in analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy,

economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer. Brusuelas provides a

macroeconomic perspective to help clients address unique issues and challenges facing their

businesses and the industries in which they operate. On 8/9/24, Joe Brusuelas stated that the

total “Yen Carry Trade” was worth $4.4 Trillion but with the leverage used, it would have a $28

Trillion impact on the global economy. For years, most experts were saying that gold and

bitcoin would act as a hedge against market crashes but we did not see this on 8/5/24. The

physical gold ETF, “GLD” was 225 on 8/1/24 and on 8/5/24, it was at 220.

September is the worst month for the market so do not be surprised to see volatility in the

market. That volatility could run for the next few months as we get closer to elections. It is

nothing more than a buying opportunity. Carter Braxton Worth is an American financial analyst

and stock market strategist. Each year since 2008, he has appeared on institutional investor's All

America Research Team, ranked as one of the Top 3 technical analysts on Wall Street. On

8/9/24, Carter Worth stated that we do not have volatility in Bull or Bear markets and when we

do have volatility, that is a sign that the market is in transition. He believes that we are

transitioning in to a bear market.

Have a great month!

Fernando

August 4 Post

Hi Again,

Look at the calendar! Historically the market peaks in August. September is the worst month of

the year for the market and most crashes take place in October. Put on your seat belts and get

ready for a ride! Market analysts talk about a “risk on” times and “risk off” times. We get the

best bargains during corrections. That's seemingly the credo for contrarian investing. Nathan

Rothschild, a 19th-century British financier and member of the Rothschild banking family, is

credited with saying that "the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets." This is why I

always advise everyone to have 25% to 50% of your portfolio in cash at all times. Even if you

have a real loss in one place, you can easily recover in the stock market. It is not that easy in the

bond market. For many months, the market astrologer Merriman has been predicting that in

November 2024, the US stock market will hit a 4 year low. Many countries had elections in

2024; and all those markets fell sharply in 2024. I always keep some put options on the

S&P500 (SPY) as hedges. As the market falls, I buy more hedges. Consider what happened to

the volatility index! On 5/11/24, it was at 11.80. On 8/2/24 it ended at 23! If I was smart enough

to buy call options on the VIX on 5/11/24, I could have easily made a 1,000% profit in 53 days!

During the past 5 years, the highest point reached by VIX was 65 (panic at the highest point).

Since 11/28/21, the highest point reached by VIX was around 30. Usually when the VIX is

between 30 and 70, it is a good time to buy stocks. On 8/1/24, the Dow (DJIA) had an intra day

low of 750 points and on 8/2/24, the intra day low was 898. Per CNBC, 8/1 and 8/2 volume

was mainly due to hedge fund purchases and sales. It is going to be an interesting Fall 2024! Be

defensive for the next 4 months.

I love studying stock and Index option tables. I find it very interesting to see what some are

buying and selling. When the covid crisis hit China, we were assured that covid will not get to

the US but it was unrealistic. When covid hit China, Disney was at about $150 and one put

option contract with a strike price of $50 (expiring in one year) was going for $90. I thought the

probability of Disney falling to $50 in one year was less than 1% but like buying a lottery, I

bought some-assuming that I will end up losing everything. In one week, the paper value

doubled and in 3 months when Disney considered opening their parks in China I sold my put

options. What I bought for $90, in 3 months, I sold for $850! That is the magic of options. Last

week I was amazed to find more than 100,000 put option contracts on the S&P 500 (SPY)

below $150 within the next 12 months. I heard that most of these were bought by hedge funds.

What does this mean? On 7/16/24 SPY hit a high of $565. For SPY to get to $150 within one

year, the market has to fall 73% within one year. In my opinion, the probability of that

happening is less than 1%. Per market astrologer Merriman we are long overdue for a 90%

correction. We cannot control what would happen but we can react accordingly. On 7/22/24, I

bought some SPY put options (expiring 3/21/25) with a strike price of $180. The probability of

losing everything was 99%. On 8/2/24, those options had a paper gain of 135% in 11 days!

2

For the past few months, Gundlach has been advising people to move from stocks to bonds

(especially, bond funds). That is a no brainer as interest rates fall, bond prices rise. Over the past

4 years I have gone in and out of bond fund ETFs and I have done very well. I prefer to use the

bond ETF known as “TLT”. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Even though I

was very late to the party this time, I purchased some call option on TLT on 8/1/24 and on

8/2/24. On 8/2/24 alone TLT rose by 3%-which is rare for a bond fund. On my TLT call options

purchased on 8/1 and 8/2, I did not expect to make money till September 2024. On 8/1/24, TLT

opened at $95.14. On 8/2/24, TLT closed at $98.28. On 8/1/24, I purchased some TLT call

options with an expiry date of 4/17/25 with a strike price of $105. In other words, expecting

TLT to be above $105 on 4/17/25. Those call options went up by 105% in 2 days! On 8/1/24, I

also purchased some TLT call options expiring 4/17/25 with a strike price of $110-expecting

TLT to be above $110 on 4/17/24. Those were up by 61% in 2 days! Then on 8/2/24, I also

bought some TLT call options with an expiry date of 6/20/25, with a strike price of $110-

expecting TLT to be able $110 by 6/20/25. Those options rose by 12% in 8 hours! I do not

expect TLT to go up in a straight line. We are sure to have “counter trend” moves. Even though

I have been only trading TLT for bonds, now due to the “re steepening” of the yield curve, it is

better to go long on the short end; specifically, the ETF, “IEF”. iShares 7-10 Year Treasury

Bond ETF (IEF) .

On 7/30/24, for our portfolio, I replaced Intel with Nvidia (NVDA). When it goes down in price

I will purchase more and decrease the average cost. For the past 4 months, on a weekly basis, I

was selling “covered call options” (for each 100 stocks owned, selling 1 call option that expire

in 7 days) on Intel. For those 4 months, I got a 7.5% gain per month on selling these Intel call

options. Prior to 8/1/24, their lowest point was $30. The highest point for the past 2 years was

$50. Per company reports given prior to 8/1/24, most experts expected very good results from

Intel. In fact, apart from selling covered calls on Intel, I bought some call options on 7/11/24

and in one day, they were up by 18%. Then came Intel earnings on 8/1/24! It was terrible! Intel

had its worst day since 1974 and fell 33%! All what I earned by selling covered calls got wiped

out. Fortunately, due to the put options I owned on Intel as “hedges”, I recovered 1/3 of my

loss. I should have had more puts as hedges. In the future, when I sell covered calls (probably

not on Intel), I will have more puts as hedges. Even if those hedges go down to zero, those are

tax deductible. Learn and live! Some are comparing Intel to Boeing but most agree that Boeing

is in a better position. If Intel loses the billions it gets from the government, it might declare

bankruptcy.

Jeffrey Gundlach was formerly the head of the $9.3 billion TCW Total Return Bond Fund,

where he finished in the top 2% of all funds invested in intermediate-term bonds for the 10

years that ended prior to his departure. Whenever the Federal Reserve makes a decision on

rates, Gundlach comes up on CNBC. This is what Gundlach stated on 7/31/24:

 The stock market could go up now as the Feds signaled a rate cut in September.

 Jerome Powell was over-prepared for the meeting.

3

 Unemployment rate is going up and the Federal Reserve is keeping close tabs on it.

 Expect 3 rate cuts in 2024.

 In the second half of 2024, expect to see a lower rate of inflation- “seasonality of

inflation”.

 Feds will cut more than what the market expects.

 In September 2024, we .will discover that we are in a recession.

 People who are losing jobs cannot find other jobs.

 Government is hiring more to manipulate labor numbers.

 Hi Yield Bonds are very attractive. 8% can be found in safe bonds.

 Gundlach likes gold.

On 8/2/24, Citibank announced that we are already in a global recession

Have a great month!

Fernando

July 2 Post

Hi Again,

The 3 tech stocks we added to our portfolio on 6/1/24 (Adobe, Dell Tech and Salesforce) had an

average gain of 22% in June; which led to a 36.53% gain for the total portfolio in June. The

market had a pretty good first half of 2024. Everyone is talking about NVIDIA. Now the

biggest market cap stock in the world! $3T Mkt cap as of 6/30/24. On 6/10/24, it had to 10 to 1

split. On 6/11/24, I bought some call options expiring January 2025 and in 2 days, my call

options were up by 25%! Two years ago, I bought some NIVIDIA at $117, hoping to buy more

when it drops but it kept moving up. I do not like to buy more when the stock prices go up as it

increases my average cost. By 6/7/24, NVIDIA was up by 1000% !!

Larry Richard Williams (born October 6, 1942) is an American author, stock and commodity

trader, Williams is the author of 11 books, most on stocks and commodity trading. Williams has

created numerous market indicators, including Williams %R, Ultimate Oscillator, COT indices,

accumulation/distribution indicators, cycle forecasts, market sentiment, and value

measurements for commodity prices.[8][9] Williams won the 1987 World Cup Championship of

Futures Trading from the Robbins Trading Company, where he turned $10,000 to over

$1,100,000 (11,300%) in a 12-month competition with real money. On 6/14/24, on CNBC,

“Mad Money”, Larry stated that NVIDIA is close to a temporary top and it should fall to around

$90. On 6/18/24, it made an intra day high of over $140 and ended the day at $136. From

6/18/24 to 6/24/24, it fell from $136 to $118! Stay tuned! If NVIDIA goes down 25% to 50%, it

would be a perfect buying opportunity!

A couple of years ago, when everyone was bullish on regional banks, I bought put options to

short sell regional banks through the ETF, “KRE”. When the Silicon Bank failed in 2023, my

put options tripled in price. A few months ago, once again, expecting the Feds to cut rates, Wall

Street was bullish on regional banks. I do not agree. Even if interest rates go down, it is very

unlikely that we will see zero percent rates again. If we do, we will have a huge problem with

inflation and another global economic disaster. Regional banks are going to have crisis as the

office real estate crisis grows all over the US. According to one estimate, these real estate

companies have to increase rents by 42% to stay alive. With very high vacancy rates, that is not

possible. In my opinion, by the end of 2026, we should see this negative impact on regional

banks. Therefore om 6/12/24, I bought some put options (to short sell) regional banks (ETF,

“KRE”) that expire in December 2026. Once again I expected the prices to drop in the short run

so I can buy more and make a profit around December 2026. In just 14 days, on 6/26/24, my put

options were up by 51%! If the Feds lower rates later this year, regional banks (KRE) will go up

and my put prices will go lower; which will give me a chance to buy more.

Jeffrey Edward Gundlach (born October 30, 1959) is an American businessman, investor, and

philanthropist. He is the founder of DoubleLine Capital, an investment firm. Gundlach was

formerly the head of the $9.3 billion TCW Total Return Bond Fund, where he finished in the

top 2% of all funds invested in intermediate-term bonds for the 10 years that ended prior to his

departure. He was fired by TCW in 2009. In the aftermath, Gundlach and TCW sued each other

and went to jury trial in California; TCW alleged that Gundlach stole trade secrets (TCW

prevailed, but was awarded $0 for the claim), Gundlach sued over compensation claims

(Gundlach prevailed, and was awarded $66.7 Million). In 2009, shortly after his firing from

TCW, Gundlach founded Doubleline, along with Philip Barach and 14 other members of

Gundlach's senior staff from TCW. Barach was Gundlach's co-manager of the $12 Billion TCW

Total Return bond fund. In a February 2011 cover story, Barron's called him the "King of

Bonds" On 6/12/24, soon after the Fed decision, Mr. Gundlach made the following

observations:

 Powell is neutral now.

 Powell used the word “balance” quite a bit.

 Less confident of a rate cut in 2024.

 Powell is in a reactionary mode.

 Feds are tilting towards a rate cut but a rate hike is possible in 2024/2025.

 Labor market is weakening but not in a major way.

 We are receiving highly contradictory information on the economy.

 Next move should be a rate cut.

 Money Supply M2 is way above pre-pandemic levels and it is growing.

 Inflation depends on the life style of the person. Top 50% of people are doing well and

the bottom 50% are in trouble.

 Unemployment rate dipped below 4%-first time since 1960. Expected to be at 4.4% by

December 2024.

 Government might try to bring down gas prices.

 Some low risk bonds have a yield of around 8% per year.

 The stock market needs rate cuts to survive.

 Still bullish on Gold and India (strongest economy).

 Current situation is comparable to 1968.

 It would be suicidal to extend tax cuts which is a blow to deficits.

Have a great month!

Fernando

June 3 Post

Hi Again,

Have you heard of “Sell in May and go away”? If others sell, it would create an opportunity for

us to buy. We saw that in some tech stocks over the past few weeks. Salesforce (CRM) dropped

from $270 to $212 ! I bought some and when it goes down further, I will buy more. However,

on 5/31/24, CRM was up by 7%. Dell dropped from $179 to $131. I bought some and when it

goes down further, I will buy more. Since January, Adobe (ADBE) has dropped from $634 to

$444. Nathan Rothschild, a 19th-century British financier and member of the Rothschild

banking family, is credited with saying that "the time to buy is when there's blood in the

streets." As for our newsletter portfolio, I replaced Delta Airlines, Southwest Airlines and

WYNN with Salesforce (CRM), Dell Computers (DELL) and Adobe (ADBE). These will

appear in the July 2024 scorecard. I seriously considered adding Pfizer (PFE) as it has a chance

of doubling over the next 5 years. On my personal accounts, I have been making money selling

covered call options on Pfizer (PFE).

Have you been noticing that it was with great difficulty that the Dow (DJIA) went above

40,000? It only managed to stay above 40,000 only for 3 trading days! On 5/31/24, call options

on DJIA (DIA) at 40,000, expiring 6/7/24 is going for 2 cents or $2 per one contract (or 100

shares of DIA). This implies that no one expects the DJIA to be above 40,000 on 6/7/24.

According to CNBC on 5/28/24, Office Real Estate loans maturing in 2024 is at $30 Billion!

These loans are getting refinanced at high rates. If landlords want to break even, they have to

raise rents by 42%. Banks will sell debt creating a once in a lifetime opportunity. Prices are at a

25 year low. Probably, this is a good time to short regional banks (KRE) again.

The rise of private credit over the past decade has been nothing short of monumental.

But JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned this week that parts of the burgeoning sector

have some of the same problems that the mortgage market had prior to the Great Recession of

2008, including questionable credit ratings from ratings agencies. “I’ve seen a couple of these

deals that were rated by a ratings agency, and I have to confess it shocked me what they got

rated,” he said at a conference Wednesday, per Bloomberg. “It reminds me a little bit of

mortgages.” Right after these comments, Dimon said when it comes to private credit, there's

been a similar dynamic at play today. The private credit market, where non-bank financial

institutions like insurance companies and hedge funds lend to corporate borrowers, has had a

renaissance in recent years with banks reducing their lending due to regulatory scrutiny,

inflation, and higher interest rates. Assets and committed capital in the sector surged from

around $500 billion a decade ago to $2.1 trillion last year, according to IMF data. And private

credit assets under management are expected to hit $2.8 trillion by 2028, according to  Preqin’s

2024 Global Report .on’t expect it to be systemic, but I do expect there to be problems,” Jamie

Dimon added. (Will Daniel, Yahoo Finance, 5/30/24)

Have a great month but do not sell and go away!

Fernando

May 6 Post

Hi Again,

Who is Jeffrey Gundlach?

Gundlach was formerly the head of the $9.3 billion TCW Total Return Bond Fund, where he

finished in the top 2% of all funds invested in intermediate-term bonds for the 10 years that

ended prior to his departure. He was fired by TCW in 2009. In the aftermath, Gundlach and

TCW sued each other and went to jury trial in California; TCW alleged that Gundlach stole

trade secrets (TCW prevailed, but was awarded $0 for the claim), Gundlach sued over

compensation claims (Gundlach prevailed, and was awarded $66.7 Million).

I have a lot of respect for Gundlach. After each Federal Reserve decision on interest rates,

Gundlach gets invited to give a talk on CNBC. On 5/1/24, here is a summary of what Gundlach

had to say:

 Powell hopes that inflation will continue to go down without another rate hike.

 We will get a rate cut (1) in 2024.

 Corporate bonds have a rate over 7% at this time. (Tough competition for the equity

market).

 This is a good environment for the moderate risk takers.

 Long end treasuries are not that attractive. The 10 year is better than the 30 year treasury.

 Gundlach agree with Powell that there is no indication or threat of stagflation. The

economy is not shrinking. Unemployment very low around 3%. During the stagflation

years under Jimmy Carter, unemployment rate was at about 10%.

 Gundlach will follow commodity prices on a monthly basis. This is how we can see what

will happen to the rate of inflation in the future.

 We will not have a recession in 2024.

 Corporate layoffs have been increasing but new unemployment claims have not being

rising. This implies that the labor market is strong and those who lost their jobs have been

able to find new jobs.

 Unemployment rate will go up.

 Federal Reserve may end up raising rates in the future.

 Gundlach is neutral on equities and he favors equities in Japan, Mexico and India.

 Gundlach is bullish on gold.

 If we go in to a recession, the dollar will weaken.

 Oil is stable around $80. If oil goes over $90, the Federal Reserve will have a problem.

No chance of a 2% inflation rate.

 The Fed confirmed that starting in June, it would slow the rate at which it's reducing the

size of its balance sheet. The Fed expects to lower the Treasury securities monthly

2

redemption cap from $60 billion to $25 billion, a slower-than-expected change in pace. –

This is like a rate cut.

We have to keep an eye on the commodity markets. Dow Jones commodity market index made

a short term bottom on 2/23/24; and thereafter it rose steadily to a peak on 4/29/24. If oil goes

over $100, we might have a recession but as soon as we expect a global recession, oil prices

will drop like a lead balloon.

We had a lot of volatility in the stock market over the past 2 months. VIX is the COBOE

volatility index. On 2/4/24, the VIX was at 12.93. On 4/14/24, the VIX was at 18.71! This

rarely happens! I should have bought some call options on the VIX around 2/4/24.

Larry Williams has taught thousands to trade the markets, and has been the only futures trader

in the world to repeatedly trade $1 million of his own money. On 4/24/24, Larry stated that the

equity market will bottom around 5/20/24.

Carolyn Boroden (“Fibonacci Queen”) , who is renowned for her expertise in Fibonacci price

and timing analysis, joined our ElliottWaveTrader analyst team in December 2019. On 4/4/24,

Carolyn stated that Apple will bottom in the mid-160s. She has been quite accurate on

predicting future prices of Apple.

Thomas Lee is a Managing Partner and the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors.

Tom Lee is one of the most bullish analysts and he has been one of the best during the past 3

years. Tom Lee strongly believe that the Russell1000 (small stocks) will rise by 50% within the

next 12 months.

As I have stated many times in the past, all the best “pundits” of Wall Street speak with one

voice at all times. I have made money by betting against these “pundits’. That is how I found

good bargains on Disney, Meta, AMD etc. For years, they were negative on MMM but when

they got a new a CEO, I purchased a call option on MMM on 3/13/24. On 3/21/24, Josh Brown

(one of the best on Wall Street) stated that this is a good time to buy MMM. By then (3/13/24 to

3/21/24), my call option had gone up by 40% in 8 days!

Around January 2023, as Tesla was dropping like a lead balloon, all the Wall Street “pundits”

stated that Tesla is good as dead (due to competition). I disagreed; one and only reason for the

drop was that Musk sold a big portion of his Tesla stocks to buy Twitter. I was able to buy

Tesla (TSLA) at $106 on 1/3/23. Then on 7/9/23, Tesla peaked at $281! Once again, a few

months ago, all Wall Street “pundits” started ganging up against Tesla and they removed it from

the “magnificent 7”. As it was going down I kept buying it. Tesla is not a car company; it is a

technology company. On 3/14/24, CNBC stated that they only get 40% of their revenue from

cars. On 3/14/24, Wells Fargo analysts predicted that Tesla would fall to $125. That would have

3

been great for me. This time I bought my last installment when Tesla was at $141.50 on

4/22/24. One day I got up too late to buy it when it fell to $139. On 4/29/24, Tesla rose to $194!

Why? Previous weekend Musk visited China and he was given an amazing reception by the

Premier of China and more freedom to test their “driverless” technology in China. Like Apple,

Tesla is in the process of developing a revenue stream through monthly subscriptions. Ford,

GM and others tried it but failed. Tesla could succeed.

In the Fall of 2022, all Wall Street “pundits” were extremely negative on Meta/Facebook and

Zuckerberg. They said that Zuckerberg is lost in his metaverse! From the day Facebook came

public, from time to time, this has been happening on Wall Street. On 10/31/22, Meta bottomed

at $90 and I managed to buy it at $98 on 10/27/22. Now all those “pundits” say that it should

not have gone that low in 2022. On 4/1/24, it peaked at $527! A few days ago, Mark

Zuckerberg told Wall Street that he is going to spend billions of dollars on AI research over the

next few years. Then these “pundits” stated that they will trust him and be patient with Meta. I

have my doubts. Quarter after quarter, year after year, when they report their financials, all

these “pundits” will gang up against Meta; and once again and run away from the stock. That is

good for us. That will provide another great buying opportunity! Just imagine it going down to

$100 and rising to $500 in another 2 years!

Have a great month!

Fernando

March 11 Post

Hi Again,

We had a 12.9% gain in February 2024.

Once again, after the Feds decision on 2/13/24, Jeffrey Gundlach (“New Bond King?”) stated

the following on CNBC:

 Now real interest rates are reasonable.

 Due to the high debt level, we cannot maintain high rates for long.

 If rates go up, we will have a volatile market.

 Market expected 6 rate cuts in 2024-simply absurd!

 The Federal Reserve care about “optics” so they tend to be less aggressive during election

years.

 3 month CPI annualized rate is going up.

 If PCE (inflation) go up, Feds cannot lower rates.

 2 Year yield shows that in 2 years, interest rate will be less than 1%.

 Last year, “big tech” expected a return of 11% but we only got 1%.

 Probability of a rate cut in May is low now.

 88% of states report unemployment rose over the past 6 months- only states like

Wyoming and North Dakota are doing okay.

 Most bullish on India.

 He recommends 40% in bonds, 25% in cash and 35% in stocks.

Apple after reaching $195 on 12/11/23, dropped to $169 on 3/7/24. China sales dropped by

25%. Less dependent on China is a good thing. If you do not own Apple, it is a good time to

start nibbling and buy more as the price drops. China has been disappointing investors for a

long time. Their youth unemployment rate is so high, the communist party stopped reporting

those stats. Since they cannot revive domestic demand, they are trying their best to tap in to

overseas consumers. Essentially, China (Peoples Republic of China) is exporting deflation.

Larry Williams has created numerous market indicators, including Williams %R, Ultimate

Oscillator, COT indices, accumulation/distribution indicators, cycle forecasts, market

sentiment, and value measurements for commodity prices.[9][10] Williams won the 1987

World Cup Championship of Futures Trading from the Robbins Trading Company, where he

turned $10,000 to over $1,100,000 (11,300%) in a 12-month competition with real money. On

3/5/24, Larry stated:

 This market will go from a “melt up” to a “melt down”.

 Expect NASDAQ to peak around 3/15/24.

 Expect NASDAQ to go down from 3/15/24 to 5/31/24.

2

If we have a serious market correction, before long, we will be able to get to a temporary

bottom. All the people who missed out on this rally are waiting for an entry point. As of 3/1/24,

CNBC reported that we have $6 Trillion in money market funds. People like Gundlach believes

that most of that money will go in to long term bonds but I expect a good percentage to get in to

stocks.

Now to the “darling” of the stock market- Nvidia. On 10/11/22, I bought some at $117. My

strategy was to buy more when the price drops; but I never got a chance. On 3/7/24, it reached a

peak of $926! On 3/18/19, it had a market price of $44! 3/7/24 to 3/8/24, NVIDIA dropped

from $926 to $875 and most “pundits” stated that this was the end of road for NVIDIA.

Nonsense! NVIDIA is the most active stock option in the option market and 3/8/24 was an

option expiry day-that was the cause.

Have a great month!

Fernando

February 12 Post

Hi Again,

Disney! Disney! Remember what I have been mentioning about Disney for the past few

months? Remember how all the best “pundits” and money managers lost all hope and

confidence in Bob Iger and the top managers of Disney? I kept buying (on my personal

account) according to my strategy. I bought one at a certain price when it went down further

(i.e. 10%) sold that and bought 10 at the lower price; and I kept doing this till I got to the

bottom. On 9/25/23 I found the bottom of Disney at $80.74. On 2/8/24, Disney hit $110! That

is a 37+% gain in 136 days!! Poor Josh Brown! He was waiting for Disney to hit $70 to buy !

Now it is difficult to find any “haters’ of Disney. What made Disney shoot up last week? Very

good news came out last week. 50% increase in dividends. Earnings to grow 20% in 2024 (over

2023). Many movies will come out soon. Entry in to the gaming world dominated by teenagers.

Finding partners for ESPN.

How about Meta/Facebook? I did the same with it and when all the Wall Street pundits were

negative on Zuckerberg, I found the bottom and bought it around $85. Experts were saying that

Zuckerberg has lost his way and he is a fool to invest so much on the Metaverse etc. and they

have no way of monetizing etc. That was nonsense. Meta/Facebook always had tools such as

Whatsapp (2 billion+ subscribers) to monetize. When they started laying off people, the stock

went up. Wall Street rejoices in human misery. Now all the experts are saying that Meta should

have never gone down to $85. Last week it hit 478!

Management is so confident in the company's prospects that Meta declared its first-ever

quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share, a yield of about 0.44%. Marketers pulled back on

digital ad spending -- which accounts for the lion's share of Meta's revenue. For the first

time in its history, the company experienced three consecutive quarters of declining

revenue growth, which sent its stock price plunging 64%. However, a rebound in the ad

market and excitement around artificial intelligence (AI) lit a fire under Meta Platforms last

year, sending the stock up 194%. As impressive as its performance has been, this could

be just the beginning. Let's look at several factors that could play into a banner year for

Meta Platforms and why there could be much more growth ahead. The macroeconomic

landscape aside, one of the biggest contributors to Meta's improving outlook was the

efforts it took last year to rein in spending, which CEO Mark Zuckerberg dubbed the

company's "year of efficiency." Initially, management expected full-year 2023 expenses in

a range of $94 billion to $100 billion. However, several revised estimates and much belt-

tightening later, Meta's expenses for the year, combined with the recovering digital

advertising market, had a dramatic effect on Meta's recent financial results. For the fourth

quarter, revenue of $40 billion marked 25% year-over-year growth, while its diluted

earnings per share of $5.33 represented a 203% surge. Meta has already said it expects

its full-year expenses to be higher in 2024, but existing cost controls have already set the

stage for higher profits.ar clocked in at just $88 billion -- which in turn helped boost the

company's bottom line. (Danny Vena, The Motley Fool, 2/10/24)

2

The secret to making money is easy but difficult to do. Over the past 40 years I have

noticed that most Wall Stret “experts” are on the “same page” – at any given time. Also,

known as the “herd mentality”. When you follow the “herd” and when the “herd” goes in to

the slaughterhouse, you also get slaughtered! I am going to love AI on Wall Street as I can

bet against AI and AI will create more of a “herd mentality”. AI is not the “voice of God”. AI

will be the summarization of the collective voice of Wall Street experts. The secret to

making money on Wall Street is to intuitively or analytically know when the “experts” are

wrong and go in the opposite direction-very cautiously, and slowly.

Irrational Wall Street! All the experts expected 8 interest cuts in 2024 with the first one coming

in March 2024! The probability of that happening is very low and if it does, we will have a

worse problem with inflation. As the experts expected rates to drop sharply and fast, the value

stocks, small caps and others that got left behind over the past few years rallied. It seems like

that was very short lived.

After every Fed decision, bond king, Jeffrey Gundlach come on CNBC. I have a lot of respect

for Mr. Gundlach. Here are some of the things he mentioned on 1/31/24:

 85% of the states reported that inflation is on the rise again.

 Yet, inflation is coming down so interest rates will come down.

 Feds took too long to normalize rates and now they might take too long to reduce rates.

 Probably the Feds will cut rates after June 2024.

 Powell not concerned about politics or holding on to his position.

 When people refer to the market as “goldilocks” or “nirvana”, it makes him nervous as

the same happened in 1999.

 Buy treasury bonds but keep away from other bonds.

 Still a 2024 recession is possible.

 Buy 2 to 5 yr bonds.

 ADP payroll data not good. Bonds were down.

 Fed policy of higher for longer is bad for banks; especially regional banks.

 Money printing and higher for longer will have negative effects but those move in slow

motion, taking a long time.

 2028 will be year when deficits will be the main issue in elections-not 2024.

 Treasury real rates are attractive now.

 The US Dollar will remain stable and get weaker when we hit a recession.

 People should invest in the Indian market as it is the most promising economy.

Did you hear that the US commercial real estate market is heading towards doomsday? The real

estate crisis in the People’s Republic of China is very severe. The real estate crisis in Germany

is expected to be worse than the US real estate crisis of 2007. Stay tuned!

Have a great month!

Fernando

January 3 Post

Happy New Year, Everyone !!

2023 was a good year for the “market”; especially for the “magnificent 7”. Our portfolio went

up 53.51% from 1/1/23 to 12/31/23. The “DOW” aka DOW30 went up 13.73% in 2023-

33,148.90 on 1/3/23 to 37,701.63 on 12/29/23. Even though I bought Meta/Facebook when it

reached $85, I did not add it to our portfolio; or else, our gain would have been much greater.

Top 100 on NASDAQ or the NASDAQ100 was up more than 50% in 2023-only second to

1999. As it happened in 1999, we could be getting “too frothy”. It is impossible to find anyone

on Wall Street that is not bullish about 2024. That is scary! As a hedge, I put a little bit of

money in to S&P500 (SPY) put options. Towards the end of the year, assuming that the Federal

Reserve is done raising interest rates, “value stocks” or the 493 S&P500 stocks that missed out

on the bullish run, took part in the bull market. Some expect rates to fall to 0% but that is just a

pipe dream. If we go in that direction, inflation will flare up again and the Feds will tighten

again. We saw this movie in the 1970s with Arthur Burns running the Federal Reserve. Powell

keeps saying that he wants to be more like Volker than Arthur Burns (to kill inflation) but no

one believes him. We have to be cautious. As Warren Buffet says, “ Get fearful when others are

greedy and get greedy when others are fearful”. Even small caps (Russell 2000) had a mighty

gain during the last part of 2023. Most brokerage firms predict that the S&P500 will end 2024

at 5200 and at 6,000 by the end of 2025. Tom Lee who had been the best bull on Wall Street,

predicts the Russell 2000 will go up by 50% in 2024. Professor Siegel is confident that value

stocks will dominate 2024. With all this optimism, we could have a serious correction in 2024

but that would be another buying opportunity. In other words, if the market goes up or down, it

is just a win-win situation. We have to stay calm and act rationally.

On 12/13/23, Josh Brown (good money manager) stated that we could have a recession in 2024.

The Federal Reserve should get the credit for getting rid of a 9% inflation rate with no

unemployment. Once again, we got lucky. Economic slowdown in China and some other

countries, created deflation that got exported to the US. Price of oil/gas is the best example.

One of the smartest people on the “Street” is the new bond king, Jeffrey Gundlach. After every

Fed decision, Gundlach shares his perspective on CNBC. In that tradition, on 12/13/23, he

made the following observations:

 We will have a recession in 2024.

 People expect $6 Trillion in “money markets’ (T Bills) to flow in to stocks but Gundlach

believes that most of that money will flow in to long term bonds.

 Feds will lower rates before inflation gets to 2%.

 Inflation, due to time lags, will go down significantly by June 2024.

 Feds may have to cut rates more than currently expected.

 The economy will undershoot on the downside so stocks and bonds will pivot in 2024.

 Studying trends in the commodity market, inflation could go down to 0% in 2024.

 In 2023, we had the biggest gain in bonds since the 1980s.

 Expect a year of great volatility in 2024.

 Stocks need bonds but bonds do not need stocks. By June 2024, bonds will not need

stocks and bonds will go up.

Have a great 2024!

Fernando

December 4 Post

Hi Again,

Look at our scorecard! In November 2023, our portfolio increased by 15.55%! Prior to August

2023 we had gains but 8/1/23 through 10/31/23 we had a total loss of 13.18% so our November

gain more than made up for our 2023 losses. Like clockwork, in most years, we get a bear

market August through October; and we get bull rallies during the November/December period.

Since the market gains were so strong in November, we should have a correction soon.

Disney! Disney! Time to brag! For the past few months, I mentioned how all “Wall Street

experts” hated Disney and yet I believed in Bob Igor and Disney; and I kept buying Disney on

the way down. Guess what? Now it is difficult to find a “Wall Street expert” who does not love

Disney! On 11/10/23, Yahoo Finance announced, “Disney has its mojo back”! On that day

alone Disney surged by 7%. At the bottom, I purchased Disney at $80.74 on 10/27/23, and on

11/24/23, it was at $96! That is a 19% gain in 28 calendar days! Retail investors listen to the

“market experts”; and even when experts get bullish, retail investors remain pessimistic. They

tend to buy when prices are too high and end up selling at a loss. Per CNBC, 69% of retail

investors are still bearish on Disney. On 11/15/23, CNBC announced that 2 billionaire activist

investors are taking a big stake in Disney. Even if you exclude all other businesses held by

Disney, their parks alone is worth $80 per share. One of the best on Wall Street, Josh Brown,

was waiting for Disney to go down to $70 to buy in to Disney. This is why we have to keep

buying on the way down. As it is said on Wall Street, no one will ring a bell at the bottom. On

11/30/23, after hating Disney for months, Jim Cramer announced, “Disney is my favorite

stock”. Better late than never!

Disney (DIS) stock surged roughly 7% on Thursday after the company reported strong

earnings the previous day and increased its annual cost cutting goal to $7.5 billion, up from the

previous $5.5 billion set in February. Analysts praised the move with Wells Fargo's Steve

Cahall writing the company has its "mojo back" — despite the stock continuing to face multi-

year record lows and another battle with activist investor Nelson Peltz. Cahall increased his

price target to $115 a share, up from the prior $110 — citing the cost cuts, coupled with positive

free cash flow guidance. He reiterated his Overweight rating.” Disney is our #1 media idea,"

Cahall continued. "Bob Iger has been under the hood for about a year now, and the strategy is

taking shape." On the earnings call, the company said it expects free cash flow to balloon to

pre-pandemic levels of approximately $8 billion in full-year 2024, assisted by lower content

spend. Disney expects to spend $25 billion on content next year versus the $27 billion spent in

full-year 2023. Moffettnathanson said the free cash flow guide was the "single most critical

take-away" from the report. Iger said the company will be focused on "four key building

opportunities" moving forward, which will include "achieving significant and sustained

profitability in our streaming business, building ESPN into the preeminent digital sports

platform, improving the output and economics of our film studios, and turbocharging growth in

our parks and experiences business." (Alexander Canal, Yahoo Finance, 11/9/23).

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As I have been saying for the past few months, my other great find was being long on the ETF

called TLT; iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bonds. It is very difficult to see bond/ETF price

appreciation in the bond market; but we had the best bond market gains since the 1980s! As

rates/yield was going up I keep buying TLT (as bond yields go up the price level goes down);

and I bought my last purchase when the TLT hit $82.93 on 10/19/23, and on 12/1/23, TLT was

at $93- 12.9% gain in 32 days! Unlike what I saw with Disney and other stocks, most money

managers were buying in to TLT; but I got in before most of them got bullish on TLT. When

Bill Ackman was shorting TLT, I was buying TLT. When the Federal Reserve started raising

rates, I shorted TLT with put options and made some good money. This is what I call a “no

brainer”. If TLT goes below $82.93 with higher yields, I will sell what I have and buy more at a

lower price-Easier to monitor my portfolio that way. That is my market discipline. While I wait,

I get a good yield; and this is the 100% risk free instrument in the world (US Treasuries)!

Now for the defense stock RTX. A few weeks ago, all the Wall Street experts got negative on

the stock; and Jim Cramer shouted “sell, sell”. So around 10/2/23, I bought a few shares; and

my strategy was to buy as it declined more. Then came the Middle East war, and the rest is

history. On 10/2/23, RTX was at $70 and on 12/1/23, it was at $82! In just 59 days, it rose by

17%! Now Jim Cramer is shouting that RTX is well reserved for their potential losses and we

all should buy RTX! Better late than never!

Sept 14 (Reuters) - Aerospace giant RTX Corp (RTX.N) on Monday told airlines hundreds of

their Airbus jets would be grounded at any one time in coming years to check for a rare

manufacturing flaw, souring the mood in an industry that was only just experiencing some relief

from supply chain pressures. It is the latest manufacturing defect to hit planemaking this year,

after separate quality issues with another big supplier Spirit AeroSystems (SPR.N). RTX unit

Pratt and Whitney's popular Geared Turbofan (GTF) engines were designed for better fuel

efficiency and fewer emissions. The engines have become popular and now compete with the

LEAP engines produced by CFM International to power the Airbus A320neo. But concerns

over its performance have swirled in recent months after engines faced problem with durability

in hot and dusty climates, requiring more frequent maintenance. In July, RTX disclosed it had

found microscopic containments in powdered metal, used to manufacture high-pressure turbine

discs that are part of engine's core, and presence of which could lead to cracks in the engine.

RTX said at that time that 200 engines would require "accelerated inspection" with 60 days to

fix each engine with a contamination issue. However, on Monday RTX widened the scope of

inspections, to pull around 600 to 700 engines off their Airbus jets and projected repair work to

last up to 300 days per engine. (Pratyush Thakur, Reuters, 9/4/23)

On 11/14/23, CEO of J P Morgan, Jamie Dimon stated that even though inflation is going

down, we are no where close to a desired level; yet on 11/14/23, CPI going down raised the

S&P 500 index. Health insurance went down by 35% but that was due to the new way the

government is making these calculations. Mere cosmetics! Market advances to market decline:

10:1. Very impressive and proof that the market is broadening. Russel 2000 outperformed the

S&P500 by 3.5% on 11/1/4/23- and in history, that has happened only 3 times and only once

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since 1987! Since 10/27/23 (to 12/1/23), Russell 2000 rose 14% in just 31 days! I think it is

premature; and I rarely invest or trade in “small stocks”. The market is expecting the Federal

Reserve to cut rates in 2024 Q1 but Chairman Powell keeps reminding that rates will continue

to be higher for longer. Even the Regional Bank Index KRE rose by 21% within the past 31

days! I am still shorting the KRE. On 11/10/23. CNBC announced that trillions in commercial

residential real estate will become due in 2024. If interest rates do not go down, there will be

many bankruptcies.

Remember the Fibonacci Queen? Carolyn Boroden, who is renowned for her expertise in

Fibonacci price and timing analysis, Boroden joined the ElliottWaveTrader analyst team in

December 2019. She is a technical analyst and author of Fibonacci Trading, published by

McGraw-Hill in early 2008. Carolyn has been involved in the trading industry since 1978,

starting on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Her work is often featured on the

"Off The Charts" segment of CNBC's Mad Money with Jim Cramer. Carolyn provides analysis

of U.S. Stocks, Equity Indices, Precious Metals and Oil in her Fibonacci Markets & Stocks

service in our ElliottWaveTrader Trading Room. The specific indexes she covers are the S&P

500, Nasdaq 100 (cash/futures), Gold (GC), and Oil (CL). The specific stocks are AAPL,

AMZN, GOOGL, NVDA, and TSLA, plus over a dozen Bonus Stocks, when Carolyn sees a

setup.

On 11/28/23, Carolyn Boroden stated that the S&P500 will go even higher from the current

levels; but it will not go up in a straight line; and any correction we should see it as a buying

opportunity. Boroden also predicts that Tesla will go up to $328. On 12/1/23, Tesla closed at

$239.

Have a great month!

Happy Holidays!

Fernando

November 6 Post

Hi Again.

Historically, worst months for the market: September and October; that is behind

us! We had a reasonable correction; but I expected more of a correction. I made use

of the correction to increase my holdings. On 10/26/23, as a hedge against a big

correction, I bought some “PUT options” on the S&P500 (SPY) index. In just 16

days, they were up by 45%! On 10/3/23, my SPY puts were up 65% in 6 hours!! I

did not sell them as I was not trying to hedge against a minor correction. At all

times, I have a bit of money on “market hedges” so if we have a long, deep

correction as we did in early 2020, I can keep selling and buying more puts to make

use of the correction. As I have stated in the past, many months ago, when most

Wall Street pundits were bullish on banks and regional banks, I was sure that they

are mistaken so I bought 3 Put options to short sell regional banks with the ETF,

“KRE”. When the Silvergate bank collapsed, as I told you in the past, I made a

150% profit on one of those put options and the gain was bigger than the cost of all

my 3 put options so I did not sell the other two. Once again, “higher interest rates

for longer” belief brought down regional banks and on 10/27/23, one of my KRE

put options had a paper gain of 92%. I am not surprised that we had a major rally

around the beginning of November. At that time, the stocks shorted were at an 8

year high! Market crashes do not happen when so many investors and traders are

pessimistic about the future of the market. Over the past 40 years, I have learned

some valuable lessons when it comes to market trading. At times, “wall street

pundits” ask people to buy a stock (or an ETF) when they are ready to sell; and vice

versa. Long before Bill Ackman stated that he was shorting the 20 year Treasury

ETF known as TLT, I was doing it and I mentioned it here. In fact, as TLT was

going down, I kept buying to be “long” on TLT. It is a “no brainer”. In a couple of

years, Feds will lower rates and there will be capital gains on these TLT purchases;

and at the same time, the yield is pretty good(getting paid to wait) . On 10/19/23, I

purchased TLT, ETF at $82.93 per share and on 11/3/23, TLT was at $87.75- that

is a 6% gain in 15 days! It is very uncommon to make so much money in a short

period of time using a bond fund! On 7/1/20, TLT was trading at $171 per share;

imagine going to that level in the future! I do not expect it to happen. For 15 years,

the whole world was at 0% or close interest rates which will cause huge problems in

the world in the future. Now we have to get used to a new paradigm of “higher for

longer”. I was hoping to see higher interest rates on TLT so I can buy more at a

lower price. On 10/25/23, Bill Ackman said that he was selling his TLT shorts as

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interest rates have peaked. I do not know if interest rates have peaked but most

probably this is a “counter trend rally”.

For the past few months, I have been talking about Disney and that it is better to

buy Disney before the “pundits” change their minds and realize the value of Disney

as a long term buy. Now it is starting to happen! On 9/25/23, I got Disney at $80.72.

On 11/3/23, it was at $85.14- 5% gain in 39 days. On 10/9/23, Billionaire and

market expert Peltz stated that he is putting billions in to Disney. The best is yet to

come. I intend to make a good profit in about 5 years. Money managers have to

make money in the short run; or they can lose their jobs so we have an advantage

over professional money managers. As Treasury yields were rising utility stocks

(where people were hiding for a higher yield) declined rapidly. Why take a risk with

utility stocks when Treasuries gave you such high yield? On 10/3/23. Josh Brown

(astute money manager) stated that XLU (ETF for Utilities) was down 75% and at it

is at its lowest point ever! If the Feds are really at the end of the interest rate hiking

cycle, it would be a good time to think of buying the XLU ETF.

Have you heard of the VIX index? VIX index is the CBOE Volatility Index. As a

general rule, when the VIX index is too low, it is time to expect volatility to go up

and hedge against higher volatility with low premium options on the VIX or buying

the VIX index shares. On 10/16/23, VIX was at 15.72 and on 10/23/23 VIX was at

22- 40% gain in 7 days!

Have a great month!

Fernando

October 2 Post

Hi Again,

Something interesting happened on 9/29/23, at market close; Disney closed at

$81.05! Why is that important? Disney on our portfolio has an average cost of

$81.05! Exact to the penny! Now as Disney goes lower, we can buy more and

lower our average cost and expect bigger returns within the next 5 years. Let us talk

about Disney and investing/trading strategies. Disney is having talks to sell the

ABC network and also trying to get in to a partnership with Amazon. I have

confidence in Bob Igor and not in the Wall Street “pundits”. Beware! I expect to

make a profit in 5 years! If it happens within 12 months, it would be great but we

must have realistic expectations. Why are the Wall Street “pundits” so pessimistic?

Money managers have to show a profit within the next few months or they can get

in to trouble with their ”bosses” and customers. On 3/7/21, Disney was at $197!

Need I say more? The Disney chart is still making “lower highs” and “lower lows”

so the current trend is to the downside and that will give us more buying

opportunities in the future. Looking at the 3 month chart, it seems like it is going to

make a double bottom: which is very bullish for the future.

Now we are in October! The month of terrible market crashes! If we are ready for

the worst, then we are ready for anything. Market is all about “mass psychology”.

Most people trade on emotions. That is why many people jumped to their death

during the 1929 crash. Extreme greed to extreme fear! How can you prepare

yourself for a crash (if it happens or not)? Play mind games with yourself. Mental

body runs the emotional body. If you invest/trade with emotions, you will end up

losing everything. How do you measure your “paper loss”? Most people compare

the last all time high with the current prices. That is all wrong. Recently I heard so

many complain about the September 2023 losses of companies like Boeing ($236 to

$191), King of all stocks, Nividia ($496 to $434), Netflix ($436 to $377) etc. etc.

One year ago, Boeing was at $126. Netflix was at $296 around 1/1/23. Now for the

star of the market- Nividia! Just 6 months ago, Nividia was only at $280 and then it

rose to $493 on 8/31/23!! Now people complain about Nivida going down to $434

during September (historically the worst month for the market)? Their growth is so

high that if you value the stock on a price to earnings (P/E) basis, this is a very

cheap stock even at this level. What will I do if we have a crash? First, as the crash

is happening, as I did in 2020, I will sell my index put options at a profit and buy

more to the downside. I will keep an eye on “good stocks” (i.e. Apple, Meta,

Google, Microsoft, etc.-“The Magnificent 7”). If those drop by about 50%

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(approx..), I will not only buy the stock, I might even get in to long term call

options. After a crash, there will be a “recovery”; which is called a “countertrend

rally”. Depending on macroeconomic conditions (not so good now), on some of the

stocks we hold, we should sell them before they reach their previous highs. This is

the other mistake made by most people; they wait till they “get their money back”.

Getting out with some losses is better than losing most of your money. During the

initial part of the 1929 crash, Mr. J P Morgan Jr. stated that he had confidence in the

market and poured “millions” in to the market and the trend reversed. Then on the

next leg down, Mr. Morgan kept putting “millions” but it did no good as it was like

standing in front of a tsunami! So the market went down 90%. In 1930, the “Dow”

ended at about 50 (from a high of 350). Around 1938, the “Dow” got back to about

200. Did most people get out at this stage? Oh No! They were waiting for the “good

old days” to return. Around 1940, it was down at 100 again. Then it rose to 200

around 1945 and prior to the it made a “double bottom”. If you had money in the

market in 1929, you only got your money back around 1960! We get in to positive

thinking and wishful thinking but it is better to be prudent with our investments and

trades. It is all about a “calculated risk”. Who was able to avoid the 1929 crash?

Joseph Kennedy; who had a bad reputation but one of the best market players of the

1920s. Just before the crash he was getting his shoes shined; and his shoe shine boy

gave him advice on what to buy/sell on the market! Joe Kennedy knew that the

market bubble was at a top so he sold off his holdings and avoided the crash. Hope

he rewarded that poor shoe shine boy! Probably, like most who lost money in the

market in 1929, that poor shoe shine boy never got back in the market again.

A surging stock market powered U.S. household wealth to a record high

of more than $154 trillion in the second quarter, aided by a rebound

in property values, Federal Reserve data out on Friday showed. Household net

worth rose 3.7% to $154.28 trillion in the period from April through June from

$148.79 trillion at the end of the first quarter, the Fed said in its quarterly snapshot

of the balance sheets of households, businesses and federal, state and local

governments. The data showed households have fully recouped the wealth losses

generated by a crushing bear market for stocks and weaker real estate values

through much of last year as the Fed kicked off an aggressive campaign to rein in

inflation through large, rapid-fire interest rate increases. The Standard & Poor's 500

total return index (.SPXTR), including reinvested dividends, delivered an 8.7%

return in the second quarter, its largest gain since the final three months of 2021.

The equity market's rally added $2.6 trillion to household net worth, accounting for

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nearly half of the overall wealth gain in the quarter. Real estate was the other large

driver, with property values rising for first time since the second quarter of 2022,

contributing $2.5 trillion to the increase in net worth. Household wealth at the end

of June exceeded the previous record high of $152.49 trillion set in the first quarter

of 2022 by about $1.8 trillion, or 1.2%. The data showed the size of households'

cash warchests - comprising a variety of bank deposits and money market mutual

fund holdings - continued to dwindle, declining for a record fifth straight quarter to

$17.7 trillion. Debt levels for households, businesses and governments kept rising

in the second quarter, though the pace of increase varied widely by sector. Total

nonfinancial debt increased at an annualized rate of 6.3% - the fastest since the first

quarter of 2021 - to $71.2 trillion, with households and businesses each accounting

for roughly $20 trillion and government $31.3 trillion. Business debt growth,

meanwhile, moderated substantially, climbing at just a 1.9% annualized rate in the

second quarter, its slowest growth since the final three months of 2020. (US

Markets, Reuters, 9/8/23).

If you have been following “markets”, I am sure that you heard that we are once

again having a bull market in “oil”. In June 2022, I looked at the charts of the 2

“oil” ETFs XLE (Energy Select SDR) and XOP (SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration

& Production) . Chevron and Exxon dominate XLE; and I bought a few shares and

both ETFs went up for more than a year. On 6/2/2023, looking at the 2 charts I

determined that XOP was more bullish than XLE. I was correct! In 2 months, XOP

rose by 20%!

I believe that I am very good at noticing trends. During the past 2 weeks, on most

days the yield on the US Treasury rises by 6.30am PST and then started falling off

during the day. This is a dream come true for traders. I have been using the ETF

known as TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF). Over the past few years I

have used options to trade around interest rate fluctuations. This trend will last for

the next 2 to 3 years. On 9/28/23, TLT ended at 88. How low can it go? Since TLT

started in 2003, the lowest level TLT reached was $81 in 2004. It is safe to assume

that we are close to a bottom. Lower it goes, higher the yield! The risk is extremely

minimal. Even if it goes down to 60, I do not mind. More the better! May to August

2020, TLT made a double top around 170! Making money on TLT is close to a

“sure thing”!

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Are we heading for a recession? Federal Reserve will not lower rates till we have a

meaningful recession. Initially the unemployment rate increases in California and

then the rest of the country follows. In August 2022, California unemployment rate

was at 3.8% and in June 2023, it was at 4.6%. I expect a recession in Q1 to Q3 of

2024.

Enjoy October!

Fernando

September 28 Post

Hi All,

Don't Panic!!!! Market crashes are fantastic!  20 year Treasury yield (interest rate) has been going up daily and ETF (TLT) value has been going down daily. I am doing great trading TLT. This is the very thing that happened prior to the 1987 crash! Feds are increasing rates, Chinese and Japanese have stopped buying treasuries, we have had most our  crashes in October (peak in August, down September). Now more and more people will sell stocks and buy bonds. Some sound corp bonds are supposed to fetch 6% to  8%.  If we have a crash, it would be a great buying opportunity! Let us hope and pray for a 90% crash (like in 1927-Otober crash)! Don't panic! Don't panic! This is why I always say that we should always keep at least 25% in cash. I was keeping 50%+ in cash. Good luck!

Baron Rothschild, a British banker and politician from the wealthy international Rothschild family, once said that the best time to buy is “when there is blood in the streets.” In simple words, when everyone else is selling, it's a great time to purchase.